In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD, and VETUSD through August 7, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
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EURUSD Technicals
EURUSD trended higher again last week but lost some momentum in the final hours.
This entire second leg materialized in early July following the close above a bull flag pattern.
I discussed this pattern on June 29th and again, on July 6th.
I also announced to DPA members that I was long EURUSD back when the pair was trading below 1.1300.
That long position from 1.1299 remains open today.
Despite Friday’s pullback, I think the highlight of last week’s move was the July close above 1.1650.
That’s the top of the multi-year wedge pattern that I’ve discussed for months.
July marks the first monthly close beyond that structure.
If you missed this latest rally, though, it might be best to wait for a pullback.
I think EURUSD has become a bit overextended, and if the 1.1770/80 support area fails, we could see a retest of 1.1600/50.
That 1.1600/50 region is a must-hold region for buyers.
Key resistance comes in at 1.1900, followed by 1.2090.
Disclaimer: I hold a long position in EURUSD.
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GBPUSD Technicals
GBPUSD played out beautifully for those who caught the idea I posted last week.
In fact, I’ve been talking about the potential for a higher GBPUSD for the last two weekends.
In last week’s forecast, I discussed how a close above 1.2815 would target 1.3000.
Buyers secured a close above 1.2815 last Monday and reached the 1.3000 target by Wednesday.
But they didn’t stop there.
As you can see, GBPUSD reached a high of 1.3169 last week.
However, Friday’s bearish pin bar hints at a possible turn lower this week.
We’ll see if the pound pulls back aggressively to the 1.2800 area, or decides to take a shallower path toward 1.2970.
Either way, I think GBPUSD needs to cool off before it can move higher again.
USDJPY Technicals
Did USDJPY close below this multi-year pattern last week?
I’ve been discussing this wedge pattern for months.
However, USDJPY wasn’t respecting either level on a daily or weekly closing basis.
That left me waiting for a monthly close beyond the structure.
A word of caution here, though.
Although July did close below 106.00, it was marginal.
That leaves me questioning the validity of the breakdown.
Still, if we see sellers come out to defend that 106.00 area this week, that will indicate that USDJPY is headed lower.
As I mentioned last weekend, 101.00 is support.
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XAUUSD Technicals
XAUUSD (gold) continues to perform exceptionally well.
And I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Will we have pullbacks?
Of course.
But I’ve maintained for months now that I’m a fan of buying pullbacks into support or bullish breakouts.
That hasn’t changed, and probably won’t for the next few years.
With XAUUSD now above its all-time high just above 1900, it’s all about the 2000 handle, in my opinion.
I talked about that last week.
Above 2000, it gets tricky since XAUUSD has never been this high.
It may just be a matter of using 2100, 2200, etc.
Unless, of course, we get a structure that provides us with a measured objective such as a wedge or bull flag.
But until then, I’ll use 2000 as resistance followed by 2100.
Key support is the previous all-time high between 1900 and 1915.
VETUSD Technicals
VeChain (VETUSD) looks ready to break out again.
If you were here several weeks ago, you’d remember the 150% rally that ensued following the last breakout.
I discussed that opportunity on June 26th and again on July 1st.
That was more than just a rally, though.
It represented a multi-year break above $0.01, which is just hours away from confirming on a monthly closing basis.
Note too how volume has increased in July.
That’s a positive sign for bulls as it shows an increase in market participation during the breakout.
Turning out attention to the daily time frame below, you can see how VETUSD has spent the last three weeks consolidating below $0.02.
And just like the monthly time frame above, volume is increasing as VET tests the top of the bull flag pattern.
What’s interesting here is the measured objective.
If I take the distance of the last rally of $0.0138 and plot it against the recent consolidation low at $0.0142, I get an objective of $0.028 on the dot.
It’s interesting because $0.028 is VET’s all-time high.
Coincidence?
Probably not.
It indicates, at least to me, that a daily close above this channel is likely to expose $0.028, which would be a 60% move from today’s price.
However, as I’ve stated since June, VeChain is a long-term investment, so I’m not trading it.
That should tell you a lot about how bullish I am on VeChain, given that I’m up 90% at the time of this writing.
I think levels like $0.02 and $0.028 will serve as temporary hurdles on the path to much higher prices.
That’s just my opinion, as always.
Last but certainly not least, don’t underestimate the potential for a weekly rally from VETUSD.
The largest two-day move following the last breakout occurred between Saturday and Sunday with VET gaining over 60% just in those two days.
I’m not saying that will happen again, but ruling it out would be a mistake.
Disclaimer: I hold a position in VeChain as part of a multi-year investment portfolio.
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What about AUDUSD pls
My broker (IC Markets) makes it virtually impossible to trade crypto (the margin requirement is just too high…) I see you are actually buying VETUSD (hence not trading it as a derrivative but holding the real thing…?) woud you basically follow the same approach with other cryptos…?
Yes. I’ve shared all of that with members over the last few months.
What kind of indicator do you use to track volume – just straight forward ‘volumes’ or more like ‘money flow’… or anything else…?
I use volume. Nothing fancy.
Justins analysis is helpful.Thanks for that.I find you are a master of wedge pattern.Any science behind this pattern?Or only history of success is the base?
You’re welcome. It’s market psychology, like any chart pattern.
Than
Thanks you Justin
Sure thing!
Hi Justin,
I like your idea on UsdJpy. I saw the same too, doubt myself on the monthly breakout. However, what do u think on the bullish pinbar formed in weekly timeframe. Would you trade this pinbar in this coming week?
My thoughts are in the post/video above.
Hi to everybody,
First of all I would like to cordially thank Justin for his professional analysis. In case of USDJPY I don’t agree with Justin, but I also agree with Noorain Samat that weekly chart a pin bar with a long tail has been formed. If we draw a channel in the daily chart, I see a bullish movement towards 106.50/70, only in case of closing the candle above 106.04 on the daily basis.
Thank you Justin. I have just one forex mentor… and thats You, Justin Bennete. I Have told a lot of my friends here about you.
As always excellent analysis sir justin hopefully we can make some money this week.
Hello everybody,
Bennett , Justin Bennett … our guardian angel.
Thank you very much for your analysis .
Longtime you didn’t talk about the ETHEREUM that is doing pretty good like you said on the blog : June 4, 2020 (Ethereum: The Charts Speak for Themselves)
my friend Samim Bromand don’t build your study on a candle made by the intersection of a last month Friday + End of month (31.7.2020) where the weekly PinBar is the result of this daily candle that broke the ATR (Average True Range) of the previous candles.
Have Best Trades.
very helpful, thanks.