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In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD, and XAGUSD through July 31, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
EURUSD bulls have had a heck of a month.
I wrote about the bull flag pattern on July 6th.
I also told DPA members I was buying the pair when it was trading below 1.1300.
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My target was 1.1600, which came to fruition with last week’s rally.
You can also see how EURUSD is testing the top of that multi-year wedge pattern that I’ve been discussing for months.
This may be a surprise to some, but I didn’t exit my long position last week.
I still have my EURUSD long from 1.1299.
Buyers showed no signs of slowing on Friday, so I decided to keep the position on for the coming week.
More specifically, I want to see if EURUSD bulls can clear the 1.1650 resistance area on a monthly closing basis.
The pair is testing 1.1650 now, and the July close is one week away.
We’ll see how it goes, but I do want to see EURUSD stay above 1.1600 on a daily closing basis to stay constructive.
A monthly close above the 1.1650 area would expose 1.2500.
Disclaimer: I hold a EURUSD long position from 1.1299.
GBPUSD is another one that has played out according to plan.
I wrote about this 2019 trend line on July 8th.
In that post, I stated that a close above the trend line would expose the 1.2800 resistance area.
GBPUSD cleared the 2019 trend line on July 21st and even retested it as new support on the 22nd.
For the week ahead, it’s going to take a daily close above 1.2815 to open the door to the top of the channel near 1.3000.
Alternatively, a close below 1.2600 would signal weakness.
USDJPY is at risk of breaking a seven-year level.
I’ve mentioned this multi-year wedge pattern several times over the last few months.
All breakouts on the daily and weekly time frames have failed.
It’s going to take a monthly close below support or above resistance to confirm the breakout.
Last week tested the 106.00 support area, which puts USDJPY at risk as we approach the July close this week.
We’ll see how the next five trading days play out, but a July close below 106.00 would expose 101.00.
XAUUSD (gold) has been on a tear since close above 1815.
I wrote about the potential for an aggressive breakout from 1815 on July 17th.
In fact, I even stated that a close above that level could send gold on a $100 rally.
So far, XAUUSD has rallied $90, so we’re almost there.
Depending on which chart you look at, the all-time high for gold is between 1900 and 1920.
As such, we can expect sellers to defend that area this week.
However, as I’ve stated for months, I’m long gold and don’t see that changing for the next five or six years.
Support for the week ahead comes in at 1875 with a close below that re-exposing 1815.
A close above the all-time high, which I believe to be a formality at this point, would open the door to the 2000 handle.
On June 30th, I stated that XAGUSD (silver) would remain bullish while above 18.00.
The initial target was 19.00, which came to fruition on July 13th.
I then mentioned that the next stop for XAGUSD was 21.00 on July 13th, which occurred just six days later.
During that time, silver went parabolic.
Last week retested 23.20 resistance, and also closed above the 21.00 handle.
As such, any retest of 21.00 will likely attract buyers, but don’t expect it.
Given the bullish momentum last week, XAGUSD may decide to blow through 23.20 for a move to 26.00 without pulling back.
Time will tell, but either way, I’m anticipating a move to 26, 35, 44, and 50+ in the next few years.