Bitcoin: Why BTC May Drop to $18,400 in March

Written by Justin Bennett

|   Last Updated March 8, 2023

·      March 8, 2023

Written by Justin Bennett 

|   Last Updated March 8, 2023


Bitcoin (BTC) risks breaking the January trend line today at $22,150.

It’s holding below it on the 4-hour chart, but a daily close would begin to solidify the breakdown.

However, BTC has looked relatively weak all month, with the market trading below the monthly pivot at $23,130.

Bitcoin monthly pivot
BTCUSDT monthly time frame

I mentioned the levels’ significance in the recent weekly crypto forecast.

The longer Bitcoin trades below the $23,130 monthly level, the more bearish I become.

A daily close below $22,150 today would offer bears additional fuel toward the $21,500 support level.

But if we start to see Bitcoin take out these support levels on the higher time frames, a move to $20,000 and even $18,400 starts to look more realistic.

Apart from the longer-term chart structure, which we’ll get to at the end, there’s a considerable amount of long liquidations just below $21,000 and even more below $19,000.

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap from Hyblock

To put things in perspective, there’s approximately $140 billion in long liquidations between $20,800 and $21,200.

And there’s even more below that, with about $240 billion in long liquidations between $18,400 and $19,200.

These are referred to as liquidity pools and often serve as magnets for the price of Bitcoin.

So while there is still a decent chunk of short liquidations above $25,000, there are even more long liquidations below the current price, down to $18,400.

If we look at the chart below, there’s a technical justification for $18,400 too.

That level served as the range low for BTC between June and October and later flipped to resistance in December.

Bitcoin reclaimed $18,400 in January, which triggered a 37% rally.

But BTC hasn’t backfilled this area, at least not yet.

A retest of any level is never guaranteed, and this is no exception.

But we must at least respect the potential of a move to $18,400, given the relative weakness in March, the significant liquidations sub $20,000, and the chart structure below.

Bitcoin range
BTCUSDT daily time frame

Justin Bennett - founder of Daily Price Action

About the author

Justin Bennett started trading in 2002, and let's just say it was a bumpy ride. But in 2010, he had his "aha" moment once he ditched the indicators and focused 100% on price action. Justin has built a following of 100,000+ monthly readers and taught thousands of traders using his simple, no-nonsense approach. He's been highlighted as a top trader by Stocks and Commodities Magazine and regularly featured by Forex Factory next to publications from Bloomberg and CNBC. ...Read More


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  1. Bitcoin forming a head and shoulder pattern on the daily time frame, if this pattern holds Bitcoin will sell to $18340 support zone.

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