Bitcoin and Ethereum have hit a wall. Both cryptocurrencies have failed to hold significant levels, which could lead to further losses.
Watch today’s video below to see exactly how I’m trading BTC and ETH. Remember to scroll down for more details, including the annotated charts.
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Forecast
On Wednesday, I issued a warning about a potential Bitcoin reversal. The daily close above the previous all-time high of $110,000, followed by the failure on May 23rd, gave BTC a bearish tilt.
Wednesday was also the day Bitcoin broke its April trend line. Although the uptrend remains intact, the market appears weak.
Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has broken below the $106,000 handle on a daily closing basis. That was the technical trigger I had previously discussed, which would open up downside targets.
Those who follow me on X should be familiar with this. I’ve shared these levels and my expectations for a pullback since May 21st.
Currently, BTC is catching a bid at the early May highs near $104,800. However, the failure at $106,000 is more significant, signaling that sellers remain in control.
A sustained break below $104,800 on the daily chart opens up the $100,000 lows. The $100,000 figure is also a psychological level, so I’d expect some demand in that range.
As I’ve maintained since last week, Bitcoin has an imbalance in the $97,000 area that looks ripe for a retest. Imbalances or inefficiencies like this tend to serve as magnets for price. So far, it’s working.
The invalidation for a pullback is $106,000. If BTC should reclaim that on the daily chart, we could see this uptrend continue. That said, it isn’t my base case at the moment.
I remain short Bitcoin from $111,269, as shared in real-time with VIP members.
Ethereum (ETHUSDT) Forecast
Ethereum broke out of its range on Thursday. The highs at $2,730 attracted selling pressure since May 13th, which led to short liquidations developing above this level.
Thursday’s session targeted those liquidations, with ETH failing to hold above $2,730. Moves like yesterday’s are standard in crypto, given the need for vast liquidity to fill large orders.
In other words, whales (large traders) used the short liquidations above the range highs to fill their sell orders. That’s one more sign that sellers remain in control.
Given the current Ethereum range and failure at $2,730, a turn lower seems likely. There are also long liquidations near $2,400. Just like the short liquidations above range highs, they could serve as a magnet for ETH.
There is also a massive imbalance for Ethereum below the recent $2,320 low. The May rally was incredibly aggressive, leaving a trail of open liquidity in its wake. That, too, could drag prices lower.
For now, I’m targeting the range lows near $2,400. However, I’m not ruling out a sweep of that low and even a retest of $2,100.
ETH will need to reclaim $2,730 on the daily chart to invalidate the pullback scenario. While we must respect all scenarios, a bullish reclaim is not my base case after this week’s events.
