Today’s weekly crypto forecast covers the DXY, S&P 500, BTC, ETH, and MATIC.
The S&P 500 is bouncing from its all-time high trend line this week, but Bitcoin had plans of its own.
So what will it take for BTC and ETH bulls to get back on track?
I answer that question and more in today’s video, including a MATIC setup you won’t want to miss.
Watch the video and scroll down to view the charts to prepare for next week.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY has been incredibly sideways this week, offering no significant insight into where it might trend later this month.
However, the dollar remains within a potential bull flag on the daily time frame.
Bullish follow-through from this next week would bring 105.60 resistance into focus.
That will be a major hurdle for bulls, given its significance since November.
As for support, apart from the potential bull flag below, we have the 103.50 area.
That was a significant factor late last year and early February, so it’s worth watching.
S&P 500 (SPX500) Forecast
The SPX played out nicely for us this week, with a perfect bounce from the 3,930 all-time high trend line.
It’s a level I’ve discussed for over a month and one we’ve had our eye on all week.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin decided to deviate overnight with a 6% selloff.
If the S&P 500 can close today above 4,020, the next stop is likely 4,085 next week.
Whether that triggers a rally from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will depend on one specific level, but more on that below.
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Forecast
Bitcoin decided to break consolidation and drop 6% overnight.
It was a sudden move that took less than 30 minutes, but that isn’t a first for BTC.
The key for bulls is a reclaim above the $23,130 monthly open. The longer Bitcoin trades below that area, the stronger it becomes as resistance.
If Bitcoin bulls fail to reclaim $23,130, we could move toward the $20,800 liquidity pool.
If they can reclaim $23,130, then $23,800 is the next hurdle for buyers.
But, for now, Bitcoin is range bound between the January trend line at $21,900 and the monthly open at $23,130.
Ethereum (ETHUSDT) Forecast
Ethereum is breaking down, which is no surprise given that it loves to follow Bitcoin.
As of now, the $1,600 area is new resistance based on recent closing prices and lows this week.
The monthly open is just above that at $1,605, so keep that in mind.
If ETH bulls can’t reclaim $1,605 in the next few days, we’ll likely see a retest of $1,500 support, and below that is the $1,420 confluence of support.
Polygon (MATICUSDT) Forecast
I mentioned MATIC in the private Discord group last weekend as it broke key support.
Several members managed to get in just below $1.30, which became a failed level with the February 24th close.
One thing that’s a bit concerning is how MATIC has (so far) been unable to climb back above $1.1790 today.
That’s been a key pivot since late January, so a daily close below it could be significant.
If MATIC closes below $1.1790, the next stop is $1.056 unless it becomes a fakeout, of course.
But all in all, MATIC looks increasingly weak, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see $1.056 tested in the coming days, if not the $1 mark or lower.
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The price drop was from a fundamental news release. Negative news in the crypto world. Probably going to be in consolidation pattern as Federal Reserve aims to raise rates by another 50 points due to elevated inflation numbers. NFP will be a clear indicator next week before interest rate decision on the 25th of March. I look for further decline back to 16k before the next bull run. Looking at monthly charts for Bitcoin to make a double bottom. Then go back up. I was reading a story last month that someone said that Bitcoin was going to fall to 10k and ETH was going to drop to $800.00. only time will tell.