In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPNZD, XAUUSD, and ETHUSD through June 26, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
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EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD lost its bullish momentum last week.
Thursday’s close below 1.1230 signaled weakness, as I pointed out on the 18th.
We saw EURUSD test 1.1230 as new resistance on Friday and even lose additional ground before the weekend.
However, I’m skeptical about the pair’s downside potential as long as that 1.1150 area is intact on a daily closing basis.
If sellers can clear 1.1150, we could see a run at 1.0990.
On the flip side, a bounce from 1.1150 support this week could trigger another retest of the confluence of resistance at 1.1230.
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GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its sideways movement last week with a break back below former channel support near 1.2460.
If you watched last week’s forecast, you know that I was anticipating a sub 1.2500 move.
The selloff on the 11th and 12th of June was too aggressive to think otherwise.
For the week ahead, 1.2460 becomes new resistance with support coming in near 1.2240.
That said, I’m not a fan of trading GBPUSD at the moment given the lack of favorable technicals and momentum.
GBPNZD Forecast
I wrote about GBPNZD on Friday.
The pair had a nice run following the breakdown from a smaller ascending channel back in May.
I wrote about this trade idea on March 18th.
For the week ahead, keep an eye on how the pair reacts around the 1.9000 support area.
Key resistance comes in at 1.9400.
Over the long run, though, I do expect the bottom of this channel near 1.9000 to fail and expose the next key support at 1.8300.
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XAUUSD Forecast
XAUUSD continues to coil below $1,750.
I’ve written about this range for gold between $1,680 and $1,750 for weeks.
I still maintain the idea that XAUUSD is headed much higher over the next five to six years, as I wrote on June 16th.
But I also like gold higher in the short-term.
That doesn’t mean it will break $1,750 over the coming days.
However, the trend continues to suggest that buying the dips and bullish breakouts are the way to go.
Just keep in mind that XAUUSD buyers need to clear $1,750 on a daily closing basis to expose the $1,800 resistance area.
ETHUSD Forecast
I wrote about Ethereum (ETHUSD) for the first time on June 4th.
It’s a play in the digital asset space that I’ve been accumulating since April.
The technical details and fundamental story of Ethereum are better suited for a dedicated blog post, but I encourage you to pursue this space.
I’m convinced that Bitcoin is nearing the end of the accumulation/distribution phase of its four-year cycle.
That means the next crypto bull market is just around the corner.
In fact, I believe it has already begun, and Ethereum could stand to benefit the most this time around, in my opinion.
As for the technicals, keep an eye on the $215 to $220 support area.
If that holds, we could see another run at $350 resistance, which has capped ETHUSD since June of last year.
For the record, I’m not trading this or any other digital asset.
These are long-term holds for me with a two to three-year time horizon.
Disclaimer: I hold Ethereum in my crypto portfolio.
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