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In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, and CADJPY through June 19, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
The EURUSD lost some ground late last week after an impressive 550 pip rally that began May 25th.
If you saw last week’s forex forecast, you know that I was keeping a close eye on the 1.1340 to 1.1380 resistance area.
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Despite repeated attempts from buyers, the EURUSD never closed above 1.1380.
As I mentioned before the weekend, the upward sloping flag on the 4-hour chart hinted at weakness on Friday.
Sure enough, the EURUSD sold off and also retested 1.1230/40 support.
That’s the area sellers have to break this week to send the euro lower toward the next key support at 1.1150.
But as long as the 1.1400 region is intact as resistance, the EURUSD is vulnerable.
That doesn’t mean the pair will move lower this week, but it is something to keep in mind, especially if you have a bullish outlook for the pair.
Disclaimer: I hold a EURUSD short position from 1.1293, as announced in the member’s area.
The GBPUSD is still holding above the 1.2500 support area I’ve mentioned for the last couple of weeks.
However, the final 48 hours of last week aren’t an encouraging sign for bulls.
The aggressive selloff into 1.2500 could trigger a break lower this week, in which case look to the 1.2200 area.
At the same time, as long as 1.2500 is intact on a daily closing basis, traders need to respect the potential for a push higher into 1.2800.
The NZDUSD tested a long-standing trend line last week.
If you’ve seen my recent NZDUSD posts, you know about the multi-year wedge pattern, much like the one on the EURUSD.
We saw the New Zealand dollar come off that 0.6550 resistance level and retest 0.6430 as new support.
It’s going to take a daily close below 0.6430 to expose the 0.6250 region.
Remember that 0.6250 is now a confluence of support as it’s the intersection of several key levels.
Disclaimer: I hold an NZDUSD short position from 0.6471, as announced in the member’s area.
I wrote about USDCAD on Friday.
In that post, I stated that a Friday close above 1.3560 could signify that the last few days below channel support was nothing more than a false break.
If USDCAD buyers can hold the pair above that 1.3560 area in the coming week, it would open the door to the confluence of resistance near 1.3860.
Alternatively, a daily close back below 1.3560 would negate the idea.
Disclaimer: I hold a USDCAD long position from 1.3556, as announced in the member’s area at the time of entry.
CADJPY is dealing with a twenty five year trend line this month.
I wrote about this on Thursday.
Where June closes in relation to the 78.40/50 area will be telling.
If we see a close above that area, it could signal that the March breakdown was false, in which case we can expect a higher CADJPY.
A monthly close below 78.40/50 would keep that trend line intact as support and also give us a monthly bearish pin bar to work with.
As for the daily time frame, CADJPY bears need to secure a daily close below 78.40 or so to open up downside targets including 76.00.
Key resistance for the week ahead comes in at the 80.00 handle.