In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and USDCAD through June 12, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
After a 500-pip rally over the last two weeks, EURUSD hit a wall of sellers on Friday between 1.1340 and 1.1380.
It was the first down day in the last ten sessions.
However, it’s unclear whether 1.1340/80 will serve as a temporary roadblock for buyers or the start of a capitulation event.
There’s a decent chance Friday was nothing more than profit-taking before the weekend.
As always, time will tell.
A close below 1.1230 would indicate further weakness and expose 1.1150.
I have a short on from 1.1322, which I also announced in the member forums on Friday.
GBPUSD is respecting the two key levels I’ve had on my chart for weeks.
Last week, I said that I wouldn’t be interested in GBPUSD until it tested the 1.2500 area, which was still resistance at the time.
Monday’s surge into 1.2500 erased any idea of selling the pair.
We then saw GBPUSD close above that area on June 2nd, followed by a retest of 1.2500 as new support.
For the week ahead, the pound may look to push into the 1.2800 resistance area as long as 1.2500 holds as support.
Alternatively, a close below 1.2500 would suggest weakness and expose the 1.2200 area.
USDJPY buyers finally broke free last week.
This is something I’ve been anticipating since early May when I was building a long position around 106.30.
I’m still in that position at an average rate of 106.90, but I won’t add to it again until USDJPY breaks this monthly pattern:
As I’ve stated for weeks, it’s going to take a monthly close above wedge resistance near 109.00 to confirm the breakout.
That means June needs to close above 109.00.
If buyers can’t get the job done, it would leave USDJPY in its consolidation phase a while longer.
On the daily time frame, key support comes in at 109.20 with resistance near 110.20.
NZDUSD surprised to the upside last week as risk assets rallied and the US dollar weakened simultaneously.
Thursday’s close puts the pair above 0.6430 support.
If buyers can hold prices above 0.6430 this week, we could see NZDUSD push higher into the 0.6570 area.
That area below 0.6600 is the top of a multi-year wedge pattern.
Alternatively, a daily close below 0.6430 would indicate weakness and expose the 0.6250 region.
USDCAD has lost considerable ground recently.
After consolidating above 1.3860 for weeks, the pair finally broke below it and even closed the March gap at 1.3420.
Gaps like that often become key support or resistance areas moving forward.
We’ll see if that’s the case for USDCAD this week.
Bullish price action such as a pin bar from 1.3420 would suggest strength and the potential for a move back to 1.3860.
On the flip side, a daily close below 1.3420 would indicate weakness and open the door to the year-to-date low just below 1.3000.