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GBPNZD: Failure to Hold 1.90 Would Open Up a 6,000 Pip Opportunity

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I haven’t mentioned GBPNZD since March 18th.

At the time, we were watching for a break below a smaller ascending channel for a run at the bottom of a much larger pattern.

Here’s the chart I posted on the March 18th:

GBPNZD daily time frame

Fast forward to today, and GBPNZD has trended lower as anticipated.

The breakdown in early May led to a retest of the 2.0440 area as new resistance.

Since that time, we’ve seen GBPNZD slide lower by more than 1,200 pips.

But the more significant breakdown has yet to occur, in my opinion.

A look at the monthly time frame illustrates why I think so.

GBPNZD monthly
GBPNZD monthly time frame

In the last twenty years, GBPNZD has experienced two multi-year declines that spanned between 12,000 and 13,000 pips.

If we treat the channel above as a bearish flag pattern, the measured objective comes in around 1.2500.

What’s fascinating is that 1.2500 is approximately 12,800 pips from the August 2015 high, which was the start of the current downtrend.

Is that a coincidence?

Maybe, but it does give me more reason to believe that a weekly close below that 1.9000 area would send GBPNZD much lower.

Key support below 1.9000 comes in at 1.8300.

Alternatively, a bounce from the 1.9000 support region would likely encounter sellers near the 1.9400 area.

Want to watch the GBPNZD video I just released in the member’s area?

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GBPNZD weekly ascending channel
GBPNZD weekly time frame

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7 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Jane says

Great analysis coach! I had done an analysis on this pair 2 days ago and was coming up with 1.82050 (just 50 points short of yours at 1.83000) so was great to see your analysis – confirms am in the right direction.

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ali says

That’s very interesting pair to look thanks sir justin.

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Olusegun Isaac says

Yes,You are perfectly right as per this pair.Infact i have been selling it since last month.From wave perspective we are in iii of (v) wave and this trend might last till early 2021.Well done sir.Keep it up

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    Jane says

    yes it does look like 3of5. But will not happen in a straight line.

    Reply
Olusegun Isaac says

Infact,let me add that Pound (GBP)will seriously bleed in the coming weeks and months.Watch out GBPUSD, GBPCHF, GBPNZD, GBPAUD & CO.Do you agree with me on this?

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CHRIS TROWBRIDGE says

similar set up on GBP AUD but it has already broken trend line support following fridays close

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