Weekly Forex Forecast (June 5-9, 2023)

Today I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading the dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD next week!

The DXY defended its yearly open as support, and GBPUSD could be setting up for a massive short opportunity.

We also have a potential short opportunity on NZDUSD in the week ahead.

Let’s dive in!

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

I’ve written about the DXY 103.50 yearly open several times in recent weeks.

That was a must-hold level for dollar bulls during Friday’s non-farm payroll (NFP) volatility.

Sure enough, the DXY posted a nice gain going into the weekend, although it remains below the 104.20 resistance area.

That’s a critical test for bulls this week.

A sustained break above 104.20 exposes 105.00 and the 105.60 range highs.

Alternatively, a sustained break below 103.50 would suggest a deeper retracement for the DXY.

EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD is a currency pair I was eyeing going into Friday’s NFP volatility.

Specifically, I was looking for shorts to get run above 1.0760.

We saw a slight deviation above that on the 4-hour time frame (see the video above) but didn’t quite get the upper wick I wanted to short EURUSD.

That 4-hour fakeout led to a decent selloff on Friday, which leaves 1.0600 exposed this week.

Of course, a sustained break above 1.0760 this week would negate that in the short term and expose 1.0830.

GBPUSD Forecast

I wrote about GBPUSD on Friday, pointing out a potentially massive reversal structure that has developed since early April.

However, the jury is out on whether it materializes.

Furthermore, I’m always skeptical of Friday moves.

That’s due to the lack of volume, and volume equals conviction in trading.

So while GBPUSD may offer an incredible selling opportunity in the future, it’s a tough market to trade until we get downside confirmation below 1.2300.

The 1.2530 area remains resistance this week.

NZDUSD Forecast

NZDUSD was rejected on Friday, just ten pips from the level I wrote about on May 29th.

You can also see where Friday carved a bearish pin bar.

As such, I’ll watch for a 50% retracement or thereabouts of Friday’s wick, specifically the area just below 0.6100.

That could offer a favorable selling opportunity for a move back to 0.6000, the support I wrote about last week.

This is a new range for NZDUSD, so that’s how I’ll trade it until the market offers further information.

XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast

XAUUSD has been an incredibly sideways market since March.

That’s been especially true over the last two weeks.

However, XAUUSD is respecting the levels I mentioned in the May 27th weekly forecast.

You can see how $1,957 served as a pivot recently, and gold bears have defended $1,982, both levels I mentioned last week.

On the other hand, Friday’s candle looks more ominous than anything we’ve seen recently.

It’s unclear if this was due to a lack of volume on Friday or if gold bears intend to push the market below the November trend line.

A sustained break below that trend line would open up lower levels like $1,920, $1,886, and $1,855.

But remember that the $1,940 trend line is support for now.