The New Zealand dollar has been range bound for most of 2023.
However, that started to change last week with the close below 0.6120.
Although NZDUSD isn’t far off recent lows, it’s trading below the monthly open and the yearly open at 0.6351.
Last week’s sub 0.6120 close means the area flips to new resistance.
That’s the trend line from the November 17th low and the recent swing low from April.
Overall, it looks like a bearish change in market structure for the NZDUSD.
I’ll be watching for a selling opportunity if we get a retracement back to 0.6120 this week, with key support coming in at 0.6000.
Alternatively, I’ll look to play the key levels shown below.
This is a case where it’s best to trade NZDUSD level to level.
In other words, a retest of 0.6120 as new resistance could offer a favorable selling opportunity as well as a sustained break below 0.6000.
From there, the next key level would be 0.5870, followed by 0.5760.
Taking your time with things here is essential, especially this early in the week.
And to be clear, I’m not interested in longing NZDUSD, given last week’s breakdown in market structure.
So we either get a selling opportunity from 0.6120 in the coming days or a sustained break below the 0.6000 area for the next leg lower.
Alternatively, a higher time frame close above 0.6120 would negate the bearish outlook and expose the 0.6182 monthly open.
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