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USDJPY Sell Signal Spotted at New Resistance

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The USDJPY is moving as anticipated after closing below 103.60 last week.

I first mentioned the late 2012 trend line on December 9th.

Here it is again in case you missed it:

USDJPY breaking down from monthly trend line
USDJPY monthly time frame

In that post, I said that a weekly close below 103.60 would be significant.

Here’s what I wrote:

If USDJPY does close a week below that support area, we may finally see the market trend toward the 101.00 support level.

The 101.00 level has been critical since 2013.

Then, on December 15th, USDJPY retested the trend line near 103.60 again and reacted with a bullish pin bar.

However, as Daily Price Action members know, I was never interested in buying the pair.

The December 14th bullish pin bar indicated that 103.60 was indeed a significant support level.

And if it’s a key support level, I knew a weekly close below it would bring out the USDJPY bears.

We got that weekly close below 103.60 last week, as I pointed out on Friday and again in Saturday’s forex forecast.

Notice how Monday’s session retested 103.60 as new resistance.

That retest ended with a bearish rejection candle on the daily time frame.

A rejection candle like this is very similar to a pin bar; the implications are the same.

As long as USDJPY remains below 103.60 on a daily closing basis, I like the pair lower to 101.00.

Remember that I use five-day charts provided by Blueberry Markets.

That means every daily candle opens and closes at 5 pm EST.

Only a weekly close back above the 103.60 area would negate my bearish outlook for USDJPY.

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USDJPY new resistance area on the daily chart
USDJPY daily time frame

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11 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Martin Njeru says

SIMILAR VIEW , eurusd there a hanging man that could lead to consolidation or retest of previous levels thats not a pin bar

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Hany Gabr says

what about GBP/NZD justin? the pair is making alot of retesting when it finally breakout

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Ankush Rathi says

I think USDJPY may test 104.9-105 level, as there’s divergence in RSI on daily charts. Also, price from last 3 days is giving higher highs-higher lows kind of formation. And there’s inverted head and shoulders in formation on 4H time frame (breakout not occurred yet) off which target points out to 104.9. Though, I am also bearish on USDJPY as testing 104.9-105 level won’t change the outlook. Even after reaching these levels there would still be lower lows-lower highs formation on daily charts.

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Thambirajah Yogarajah says

Thank you Justin. Very good analysis.

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
ali says

thanks for the update sir justin.

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marina says

you mentioned go back that after it broke the resistance to the up side it will go , to 1,72 atleast

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Sunday Iluyemi says

Thanks, Mr. Bennett. Your analysis are always helpful.

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Ankush Rathi says

I think USDJPY may test 104.9-105 level, as there’s divergence in RSI on daily charts. Also, price from last 3 days is giving higher highs-higher lows kind of formation.
Thought it did not tested the level mentioned but that divergence did stopped the downside momentum for the time being. Today it just tested its 50 EMA, now we need to see if this test its resistance at about 104.3 level and 1 July trendline.

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