NZDUSD: 2,000 Pip Opportunity Unfolding

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 21, 2020

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 21, 2020

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 21, 2020


Every so often, we’re presented with incredible opportunities in the currency market.

And once in a lifetime, we’re presented with, well, once in a lifetime opportunities.

With everything going on in the world today, I see this as the latter.

My April 14th EURUSD commentary probably comes to mind.

The key is knowing which side of the market to be on.

It can be the difference between making hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars and breaking even. Or worse, losing money.

You see, I think we’re about to see a massive move higher from the US dollar.

We saw a glimpse of that in March, but that was just the warm-up for what’s coming, in my opinion.

I shared a twenty-year chart of the DXY with Daily Price Action members this morning, which is pretty close to the inverse of what we’re seeing on the EURUSD.

If you aren’t familiar with my long-term view of the EURUSD, watch Saturday’s forecast video.

One thing I said on Saturday is that the recent breakdown from the NZDUSD may be foreshadowing what’s about to happen with the US dollar across the board.

However, what I didn’t say is just how ugly things might get for the New Zealand dollar if that happens.

Just like the euro, I can see the NZDUSD trading toward its 2000 lows.

And this isn’t just my opinion. The monthly time frame says it all:

NZDUSD monthly time frame

The head and shoulders pattern above has been unfolding since the 2008/09 financial crisis lows.

It isn’t the cleanest pattern I’ve seen, but it passes the test.

What’s incredible, though, is where the measured objective falls.

A measurement from the neckline to the July 2014 high gives us a height of about 2,800 pips.

If we measure 2,800 pips lower from the June 2018 breakdown, we get an objective of 0.4000 or thereabouts.

The 2000 to 2001 lows fall just below that at 0.3970.

Coincidence?

I think not.

I could be wrong about all of this, but pairs like the NZDUSD continue to look bearish as multi-year topping patterns like the one above unfold.

In the near-term, a break below the 0.5960 area would expose 0.5860, followed by 0.5650 and 0.5470.

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NZDUSD daily time frame

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23  Comments

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  1. Hi Justin, unlike many of the naysayers who’ve left comments here, I agree with your analysis. For myself, I had plotted longer-term targets for AUD (0.50) and NZD (sub 0.50) back in mid-2018, which are a lot more plausible now, than they were back 2 years ago! But I respectfully disagree with your headline that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity – these opportunities usually come around once every 10 years or so… a bit sensationalistic mate! Happy trading.

    1. Cheers, Paul. I could care less about naysayers. As for it being a once in a lifetime opportunity, I was referring to the magnitude and speed at which these markets are moving. Guess I wasn’t clear on that.

  2. Justin , you are a total idiot,
    as a food producing nations that is about to come out of a successful lockdown your suppostion is a total wank!
    get with the page and do some really constructive analysis.

    i bet you are not shorting the Kiwi with “your” money ?
    eh
    hmmm

      1. I am sorry you have to go through such unkind comments, I have have learned so much from you analysis and I have made money too.

  3. Timing is critical , Checking across the pair i do think we need to see AUDJPY and NZDJPY fill that march gap so that we can short together. meanwhile their are preparing to their graves with her sister in law AUDUSD

  4. I take entry after daily closed below 0.5960 but in next intrade its going up after touching 0.5920 thay. Back on 0.5975 than how can i set resistance.. they again brake 0.5960 and up and lost trade in everytime this happen

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