In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD through April 24, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
The EURUSD is nearing the end of a massive terminal pattern.
It is, in my opinion, the most pivotal pattern in the euro’s history.
The bottom of the wedge above starts from the euro’s all-time low just below the 0.8300 mark.
Any pricing you see for EURUSD before 1999 is actually trade-weighted data from a basket of pre-euro currencies.
As I mention in the video above, I’m anticipating a break lower.
I could be wrong, but I’ve already started to size into a short position, which I announced in the Daily Price Action member’s area last week.
So far, that position is in the money.
As for the near-term picture for EURUSD, it’s going to come down to 1.0900 resistance this week as well as 1.0700 support.
The former is a short-term trend line from the year-to-date low, while 1.0700 is near the bottom of the multi-year wedge pattern above.
Compared to the EURUSD, the GBPUSD isn’t doing much at all.
The pair continues to trade in narrow ranges, this time between 1.2450 and 1.2600.
Furthermore, there’s no momentum here.
Sure, we’ve seen the GBPUSD rally since its all-time lows in March, but it isn’t what I would call tradeable momentum.
On top of that, I don’t see a pattern that’s worth my time.
Compare what’s happening below to the EURUSD charts above and you’ll see what I’m getting at.
Until something changes for the GBPUSD, I’ll leave it alone and focus my attention elsewhere.
If traders think the EURUSD monthly chart above introduces a pivotal moment for the euro, the USDJPY chart below will make your head spin.
Now, to be fair, I’ve seen the monthly pattern above before.
If you aren’t familiar with technical analysis, the three shaded boxes in the chart above illustrate what could be a twenty-year inverse head and shoulders.
So why didn’t I say anything about this pattern before?
Honestly, I had a difficult time believing the USDJPY would appreciate that much, especially given the yen’s typical safe-haven status.
But things may be different for the USDJPY this time around.
Just look at recent events.
The S&P 500 fell from around 3400 to 2200 between February 20th and March 23rd. It was a massive move, for sure.
We did see an initial selloff from the USDJPY, but guess where the so-called risk-sensitive pair ended up on March 23rd?
Just 60 pips below it’s February 20th high.
So the S&P lost over 30%, and the USDJPY was down 60 pips?
Something isn’t right.
The bottom line is that I do think a surge in USDJPY prices is possible, especially if the market breaks the top of the multi-year wedge above.
If that doesn’t happen, all bets for a higher USDJPY might be off.
In the short-term, though, it’s going to come down to whether buyers can continue to support the pair above 106.90.
A break below that would expose 105.50 to 106.00.
Alternatively, a sustained break above 109.30/50 would signal strength and re-expose recent highs above 111.00.
NZDUSD continued its sideways consolidation last week.
I’ve written about the potential to sell the New Zealand dollar at higher prices, but timing is critical, as always.
Those who chased NZDUSD down last week got burned or at least shaken out of their shorts with Friday’s rally.
I’m interested in shorting NZDUSD, but not until we see one of two things.
Until one of those two things occurs, I’m going to stand aside.
Following an aggressive rally that began on March 20th, the XAUUSD (gold) finally went through some profit-taking on Friday.
The pair did close the day below 1690, which could serve as resistance this week.
But as always, Monday’s open will be critical.
If 1690 does push XAUUSD lower, keep a close eye on the support area between 1640 and 1650.
Despite Friday’s weakness, I still think gold bears need to be careful.
Sure, we could see the metal weaken further, but the uptrend is still very much intact, which suggests buying on dips is the way to go.
That could change, but until it does, the intermediate to long-term outlook for XAUUSD looks increasingly bullish.