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NZDJPY Reversal Pattern in Focus

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After a 1,000-pip rally off of the August low, NZDJPY is in the process of completing a topping pattern that could trigger a revisit to former lows.

You may remember the sixteen-month head and shoulders pattern that we traded back in June. This ended up being my largest profit ever from a single trade idea, which of course was compounded as I added to the position along the way.

Fast forward to today and we can see that the pair has now erased over 1,000 of those pips since the August 24th low at 72.40.

However, those gains may be coming to an end as the yen cross appears to be slipping once again. The 4 hour chart below illustrates the head and shoulders reversal, which would target a measured objective near 77.80.

NZDJPY head and shoulders reversal

Although the pair has now closed below the trend line that extends off of the October 8th low, there is still some support that needs to be dealt with before a move lower can commence.

Another look at the 4 hour chart (below) shows the horizontal level at 80.25 that has been in place since the second week of October. With this in mind, it would be prudent to wait for a close below this level before considering a selling opportunity.

Summary: Watch for a selling opportunity on a close below 80.25. Key support comes in at 78.75, 77.55 and 74.50. The measured objective for the pattern can be found at 77.80. Alternatively, a close back above the trend line that extends off of the October 8th low would negate the bearish bias and turn our attention higher.

NZDJPY 4 hour selling opportunity

Leave a Comment:

6 comments
Admin SimpleFXStrategies says

Thanks, Justin… nice setup in formation. I was just wondering where was the SL to be put here… 81 area (above said “key tech break” formation) or 82 area (above recent shoulder) when the potential setup is definitely no longer valid… please discuss…

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    It really depends on the price action that unfolds, but an initial stop above the 81.20 area wouldn’t be a bad place to start.

    Of course it all depends on your own analysis and requirements as to what is considered favorable.

    Reply
Troy Berkely says

Thank you Justin. I see the same set up approaching the Euro/JPY pair as well. However is will remain interesting to see if it breaks key support.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Troy, you’re welcome. EURJPY is fairly sideways at the moment while NZDJPY is retesting that broken trend line.

    We’ll see where we go from here.

    Reply
Kamoru says

Dear Justine,
Exactly 80.25 as your analysis we had bearish pin on 4hr now. I think is good nice for sell?

Reply
Justin Bennett says

Kamoru, perhaps. But that depends on your trading plan.

Reply
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