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NZDJPY Remains Vulnerable Below 76.30

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On Monday I wrote about a key resistance area for NZDJPY.

The level in question was 76.30. It’s the intersection of channel resistance and the horizontal level that supported the pair last November.

Although there wasn’t much bearish price action to speak of, the 76.30 level has held up well so far this week.

In fact, Wednesday’s high was 76.31. It doesn’t get much closer than that.

NZDJPY is currently off this week’s high of 76.31 by 100 pips. It seems sellers are doing their part to keep the level intact as resistance.

But in case you missed Wednesday’s retest, there is a short-term pattern that you may find helpful.

Before I get to that though, I want to reiterate that the January 3rd flash crash has made it a bit more challenging to read a pair like NZDJPY.

However, the channel you see below is still relatively well defined in my opinion.

The approach is similar to what I teach for any other ascending channel: wait for a daily close below support followed by a retest of the level as new resistance.

Of course, it’s ultimately your decision as to how you trade this if at all.

This channel is a little unique in that it doesn’t begin with the swing low from January.

But again, I’m forced to work around the extreme volatility that transpired last month.

The bottom line is that as long as NZDJPY trades below 76.30 on a daily closing basis, the pair is vulnerable.

It’s going to take a close below channel support near 74.40 to open up the next target at 72.40.

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NZDJPY ascending channel on the daily time frame

Leave a Comment:

27 comments
shaharear hasan says

awesome sir

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers. Thanks for commenting.

    Reply
Eccprince says

Wow.. Thanks

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
andre says

great

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Kurt says

What concerns me alot since January 3rd. With that crash that i got caught by, what refer to as the bottom fell out. And has seen so many time since up or down. Makes it a challenge to predict a directional move.
Whats your taught.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    This year has been challenging. But conditions are always changing. The key is to have the patience and discipline to wait it out.

    Reply
Olufemi says

Thanks for all these daily clues. I do appreciate them. The way you draw your trendline is amazing. Is there anyway to master the proper way of drawing it because another person may draw them differently but I know there must be a right way

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. The answer to your question is LOTS of practice. Keep in mind that I’ve been trading this way for over a decade.

    Reply
Adebayo saheed says

You are a grate teacher

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks, Adebayo. Have a great weekend.

    Reply
kisaula says

Am very new here looking forward to learn alot from you after being a constant looser i the market for a year now

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Welcome. Let me know if you have questions.

    Reply
Emmanuel Pyuza says

We will grabs more pips on this… sir!!

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Aurelio Pena says

NZD/JPY is my favorite pair… This one looks like its breaking down, a good spot for a Short, with immediate Support at 74 and next Support probably at 72.5…I made lots of profits with this pair last year—but also got WIPE OUT twice, hahahaha

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    Jenerali says

    hahahaha

    Reply
cK says

Thank you Justin.
Clear & Concise Analysis 👍

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Nero says

Lovely chart

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers. Thanks for dropping by.

    Reply
Jenerali says

justin you’re a genius.. i never anticipated that intersection of the three patterns

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I wouldn’t go that far, but I appreciate the compliment. 😉

    Reply
xolani says

thanks Justin for your insight, does the eurnzd pushing higher now what is your take with it?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. I don’t have an opinion on EURNZD at the moment.

    Reply
nkosi says

will hold my short position

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Jonathan says

Thanks for the information, very helpful.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
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