NZDJPY Approaches Key Resistance at 76.30

by Justin Bennett  · 

February 18, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

February 18, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

February 18, 2019


The NZDJPY played out perfectly for us last December.

Most of what I do revolves around breakouts from chart patterns as well as candlestick formations such as the pin bar.

However, false breaks can be just as lucrative if not more so.

Look no further than what happened to NZDJPY between November 28th and December 14th of last year.

On November 28th, the New Zealand dollar cross broke above a long-standing descending channel.

Here it is on the weekly time frame:

NZDJPY descending channel on weekly time frame

Buyers held the pair above new support for a couple of weeks.

However, that came to an abrupt end on the 14th of December.

Here’s the daily chart:

NZDJPY false break and selling opportunity

Notice how NZDJPY closed the day back below the channel top. That was our signal to go short.

There was even a second bearish pattern in play in the form of an upward sloping flag that helped confirm the breakdown last month.

Here’s the comment I made in the member’s community:

NZDJPY member's comment

Our target was 72.40 (red line above) which was nearly 500 pips away at the time.

The aggressive selloff in late December and early January helped the pair reach our target in record time.

That brings us to the current NZDJPY price action.

Buyers are close to retesting the confluence of resistance at 76.30. It’s the intersection of channel resistance and the lows from last November.

On the surface, it appears to be an excellent area to watch for NZDJPY shorts.

However, let’s not forget what has happened here…

Like all the yen pairs, NZDJPY bounced aggressively following the January 3rd flash crash. The pair also tested critical support below the 70.00 handle.

That bounce last month may be indicative of a bottom. In which case, selling from the 76.30 area is ill-advised.

As always, it will depend on how NZDJPY behaves at 76.30 resistance over the next few sessions.

Bearish price action from here would signal a turn lower. Perhaps as far as 72.40.

Alternatively, a daily close above the 76.30 area would be bullish. It would also expose the December high at 78.80.

I think a wait-and-see approach is the best course of action at the moment.

These markets are too indecisive to trade them without some form of confirmation such as a pin bar or engulfing pattern.

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NZDJPY key resistance area


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27  Comments

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  1. I see a SHS pattern here at the end of a downward trend, do you think it’s valid?

    If it is, my neckline is at 72.00 and measured target at 65.80.

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