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Weekly Forex Forecast (June 27 – July 1, 2016)

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EURUSD broke below a key technical level last week on the back of the UK fallout from the EU. I have had my eye on this area for several weeks now and commented on the breakout during Friday’s session.

From here I’d like to see a daily close below the 1.1060 handle before considering a short position. This level has served as a key pivot since early 2015 and is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the December 2015 low at 1.0515 to the 2016 high at 1.1615.

As I mentioned last week, a daily close below 1.1060 would expose the March 10th ECB low of 1.0820 with a break there opening the door for a retest of the current 2016 low at 1.0515.

In summary, I favor selling into Euro strength so long as the pair remains below the 1.1140 area on a daily closing basis.

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EURUSD key technical break below support

GBPUSD made its mark on history last week. After the somewhat surprising conclusion to the EU referendum with the “leave” camp winning the day, the British pound lost a staggering 1,800 pips in a matter of hours.

The truth is, the final vote didn’t cause most of the damage. The majority of selling commenced as soon as the results were released from what were thought to be pro-remain areas showing that “leave” was in front by a considerable margin.

But that was then, and this is now. And before trading a market this volatile and overextended (at the moment), it’s important to allow the market to come to you, not the other way around.

As far as where the pair might find resistance in the week ahead, we don’t have to look any further than the former 2016 swing low at 1.3834.

Based on Friday’s close, the next level that might attract a bid is the 2009 low at 1.3500. A move below this area, which is likely in my opinion, would expose levels that haven’t been seen since 1986, which was the case for a brief period on Friday.

GBPUSD bearish engulfing week

Friday’s flight to safety put AUDUSD back below the key 0.7490 handle. The pair had previously broken above this level the day before the much-anticipated referendum, but like any other risk-sensitive pairing, the Aussie wasn’t able to sustain former gains.

The bearish engulfing pattern and close back below 0.7490 expose channel support that extends from the current 2016 low at 0.6827.

If we should see channel support give way along with the May lows of 0.7160, there wouldn’t be much standing in the way of a retest of 0.6827.

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AUDUSD ascending channel on the daily chart

NZDUSD is one of my preferred currency pairs to sell on the back of last week’s Brexit. After respecting channel resistance for several days, the kiwi made a key technical break above the level last Thursday.

However, by the end of Friday’s post-Brexit selling, the pair was trading back below the resistance level, signaling that Thursday’s rally was nothing more than a false break.

The strength shown by the kiwi in the latter half of Friday’s session was a bit surprising. After being down 270 pips on the day, the pair managed to claw back 150 of those pips before the weekend.

With that said, the large bearish engulfing candle and the close back below channel resistance are indications that Friday’s afternoon bounce was nothing more than profit taking before the weekend.

I remain bearish here as long as the 0.7180 area holds as resistance on a daily closing basis.

NZDUSD false break of channel resistance

Last week’s selloff in the British pound also led to a confirmed reversal pattern on the GBPCAD weekly chart. I mentioned this price structure in the last weekly forecast as one to watch should Brexit be the outcome of the referendum.

With the pair ending the week well below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern you see below, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

What is unclear at the moment, however, is whether or not we see enough profit taking to cause a retest of the 1.8150 handle as new resistance. A daily close below the 1.7540 area would be an indication that such a retest is unlikely. In which case, traders may have to settle for a lower entry to catch a move toward the measured objective near 1.5300.

But like I mentioned above on GBPUSD, it’s important not to chase this or any currency pair. And considering GBPCAD is currently 800 pips away from the 10 EMA, chances remain high that we’ll see a relief rally of some sort before the next leg down materializes.

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GBPCAD confirmed head and shoulders reversal

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4 comments
Tanvir says

Thanks!

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Tanvir, you’re welcome my friend.

    Reply
saiful ramlan bin ali muslim says

very good analysis

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thank you, Saiful.

    Reply
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