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Weekly Forex Forecast (June 11 – 15, 2018)

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

EURUSD bulls managed to push prices higher last week, but the conviction is lacking in my opinion.

I pointed out the 1.1720 horizontal level a couple times last week. You can see how it was serving as resistance between May 31 and June 5 before the single currency closed above it on the 6th.

That session close at 5 pm EST (remember, I use New York close charts) was the only invitation buyers needed to force a retest of the 1.1830 area.

It’s no surprise that sellers came out to defend 1.1830 during Thursday’s session. However, what was a bit surprising was how quickly they were able to force a retest of 1.1720 as new support on Friday.

Friday’s relatively aggressive move back to 1.1720 is what would have me questioning my bias if I were bullish (which I’m not).

If you drop to the 4-hour time frame, you’ll notice there’s a short-term trend line support that extends from the May 30 low. If you attempt to draw this as a channel, you’ll quickly see that buyers are having a tough time getting back to resistance which was closer to 1.1880 last week.

I’ll write a more detailed post this week provided things don’t fall apart before then.

For now, it comes down to 1.1720 support and 1.1830 resistance. A daily close below 1.1720 would re-expose the trend line that extends from the 2017 low. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.1830 would expose the next key resistance at 1.1940.

EURUSD key horizontal levels

Similar to the EURUSD, the GBPUSD is caught in a range. Following the June 1 close above 1.3300, buyers swooped in to support prices between the 4th and 5th; no surprise there.

That exposed the 1.3460 resistance level which was tested as such on Thursday. This is a level I’ve had on my chart for some time now.

For the week ahead, a daily close above 1.3460 would expose the next key resistance at 1.3600. This area served as the range top between the 9th and 14th of May.

Alternatively, a daily close back below the 1.3300 handle would turn our sights back to the current 2018 low at 1.3204.

GBPUSD daily time frame

The AUDUSD completed a textbook retest of support turned resistance last week. I first mentioned this trend line on April 24. We didn’t know it at the time, but it would take the pair six weeks to retest that broken level as new resistance.

Although the AUDUSD plunged below 0.7580 briefly on Friday, the level is holding as support on a daily closing basis. I pointed out the 0.7580 handle in Thursday’s post.

However, I would be surprised if Friday’s bounce from 0.7580 becomes anything more than temporary relief. In my opinion, the retest of 0.7670/80 last week was a significant development and one that could propel the AUDUSD lower in the weeks to come.

Last week’s long upper wick on the weekly chart also supports a bearish outlook. That said, with 0.7580 still intact as support we could see some strength in the near-term.

It’s going to take a daily close (using New York close charts) at 5 pm EST below 0.7580 to expose the next key support at 0.7410.

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AUDUSD rejection from trend line

Similar to the AUDUSD above, the GBPJPY also completed a textbook retest of support turned resistance last week.

On Tuesday, I published commentary about how the risk-sensitive cross was retesting 147.00 as new resistance. However, I didn’t see an opportunity to go short just yet so I decided to wait.

Here’s what I wrote on Tuesday:

As you can tell, there are a couple ways to interpret the GBPJPY at the moment. When faced with uncertainty like this, I’ve found that the best course of action is to wait it out.

That turned out to be the right call considering the pair rocketed 160 pips higher over the next 48 hours.

You may also recall that I had my eye on the 148.00 handle. This was support turned resistance based on the twelve-month ascending channel we’ve been discussing for weeks.

Here’s an excerpt from Tuesday about the 148.00 level.

You may recall my posts on this pattern, including the one from May 4 as well as just about every weekly forecast for the past six weeks. A market will often need to retest the broken support level as new resistance before continuing lower.

If that ends up being the case here, it would suggest a move above 147.00, perhaps up to the 148.00 area. That is unless the 147.00 area can attract enough selling pressure over the next few sessions.

Thursday’s session reached a high of 148.11 before plummeting just over 200 pips in less than 48 hours. Based on the price action in the final two sessions last week, I’d say sellers are out to defend old support as new resistance in the 148.00 region.

Now, the GBPJPY did close Friday’s session just below the 147.00 handle. The area has been significant since October of last year and could attract sellers early this week. The question is, was Friday’s break of 147.00 convincing enough to keep the bearish momentum intact?

Key support comes in at 144.00. I’ve illustrated this level in just about every GBPJPY chart for the last two months, and so far it’s holding on a daily closing basis (New York close charts).

GBPJPY rejection from trend line

On Friday I mentioned a 4-hour ascending channel on the NZDCAD that could produce a selling opportunity this week. I also wrote that a breakdown was imminent despite the fact that prices were still above channel support at the time.

The pair’s failure to retest channel resistance on June 5 was the first sign of weakness. Buyers only missed the level by a few pips, but it still suggested that momentum was slowing.

The second sign and the one that ultimately led to Friday’s breakdown was the pair’s repeated retests of channel support. Whenever a market begins to lean on a level in this way it usually means a breakout is just around the corner.

For the week ahead, I’d expect any retest of the 0.9110/20 resistance area to attract sellers. As long as it holds on a 4-hour closing basis, the NZDCAD is vulnerable.

Key support comes in at 0.9000. It’s difficult to see on the 4-hour time frame, but a glance at the daily chart and you’ll notice how significant this level has been since late 2014.

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NZDCAD 4-hour ascending channel

Leave a Comment:

28 comments
Farhan Mehmood says

I am watching the sell opportunity on NZDCAD

Reply
Toyosi says

Hi Justin
Good job always
Why don’t you run commentaries on gold. Any particular reason??

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers.

    Yes, because of regulatory requirements here in the states. I do, however, have access to the charts so I may start offering commentary on gold and silver.

    Reply
Leonardo says

I would like you to mentor me sir,your analysis make alot of sense.

Reply
      Adeyanju says

      I tried several attempts to make the payment but it wasn’t going through with Naira mastercard, and I tried contacting you for other means of payment (perhaps Western union). But I didn’t receive any response.

      Reply
        Rawlings+MD says

        Hello Ade, I would love to connect with you.

        Reply
        Folaranmi says

        Thanks Justin. You are really the best

        Reply
        Abdulazeez says

        Hello Adeyanju, You shouldn’t be having any problem paying with your Mastercard except if you have reached your limits. Confirm your limits with your bank and try again.

        Reply
Rawlings MD says

Thanks for the forcast. I am sure that this week will be pips filled week.
Thanks Justin.

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Emuobo Agbahovbe says

I can only thank you for the immense help your training has brought me. Thanks !

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Victor says

Hallo Justine, I’m anxiously waiting for USDJPY for this week 11-15th June thanks.

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    Victor says

    Looking at my chat now, there was a huge spike on the long this morning, about 500+ pips. So painful I missed it. Didn’t see it coming. Where u in tune for it?

    Reply
Furaha Kaisi says

Waiting opportunity for nzdusd sell

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Nyerho says

Thanks alot sir, you have been really helpful, but I would love to know if you had like a whatsapp group where you drop these forecast too..Here is my number though+2347019358844 thanks alot

Reply
    Abdulazeez says

    Hello Nyerho, I think what you are looking for is the DailyPriceAction WhatsApp number. Send Join to +1(240)778-3679, and you should be able to receive the daily and weekly forecast.

    Reply
      Amaka says

      I have sent “join” to the number above since past 2weeks and no reply.

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        I’m no longer adding people to that broadcast.

        Reply
alex says

justin as always your comments about these pairs are very helpful and I thank you.

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Ferdinand Abia says

Nice focast

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Rashad says

Well done Justin, especially regarding GBP/JPY
I placed a position at 148.00 last Thursday following your instructions, and I’ve increased my equity with 150 pips.

Now, what is your recommendation,
Place another short position at 147.00 or wait for another retest at 148.00 ?

I’m also concerned about Trump-Kim meeting on Tuesday that may affect JPY pairs.

Thank you for the Ultimate Swing Trading course, It’s really priceless! I sent you an email last week.

Waiting for ur reply!

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Jibrill Gariba says

Hello Justin, please what’s your take on the gap that form at the opening of the NZDCAD pair? Is this going to change the possible downtrend of the H4 chart?

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Simeon says

You are the best Justin. Keep up the good work. Thank you

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mainframe says

Sir, Im seeing many high impact news this week.to what extent will the analysis be affected

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MOHAMMED HAQ says

Hi!!!
Thanks for your accurate weekly forecasts which is helping a great deal..

Though i receive your weekly forecast.. i want to to know how to get access to your daily post and key analysis…

waiting for your reply

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Samuel says

Thanks very much for the weekly analysis.Am really very grateful.

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Ron says

I am new to this and when I click on New York close charts it takes me to Blueberry Markets which appears not to accept US clients. Do you know of any brokers that use New York close charts that do accept US clients. I like you comments.

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MOHANAMURALI MADRAS SUNDARAM says

HI SIR, GREETINGS, I FOUND INTERESTING IN YOUR STRATEGIES I APPLIED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EUR/USD IT WORKED PERFECT, NOW I FEEL COMFORTABLE IN MAKING PIPS FROM YESTERDAY, . THANKS A LOT FOR GUIDING US, GOD BLESS U. BYE

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