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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.
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As I type this, the NZDCAD is testing 4-hour ascending channel support for the third time since its inception on May 23.
I’ve written about this type of price action in the past. Whenever a market begins to lean on a support level like this, it usually suggests that a breakdown is imminent.
You can even see how the June 5 high failed to reach channel resistance. This was the first time the NZDCAD didn’t tag the channel top before retreating lower. I pointed this out in the member’s area yesterday as a sign of potential weakness.
Fast forward to today, and you can see how the pair is struggling to move away from channel support near 0.9100. So far, buyers are managing to keep prices above the key support level, but can it last?
We should know the answer to that question in the next 24 to 48 hours. That means waiting for Monday or perhaps Tuesday before further deliberation.
If the NZDCAD closes below channel support on a 4-hour closing basis, it will expose the 0.9000 handle. It’s difficult to see on the 4-hour time frame, but a glance at the daily chart and you’ll notice how significant this level has been since late 2014.
A daily close (using a New York close chart) below 0.9000 would open the door to the next support level at 0.8860. And not far below that is the current 2018 low at 0.8786.
In summary, it appears the NZDCAD is readying for another run at the 2018 lows, but a close below channel support is needed to confirm the shift in sentiment.
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Thank You Justin for heads up..love it on daily as well…shows nice rejections….i hope it will break before market closes for weekend..
You’re welcome. I’d rather not open a position on a Friday, but the choice is yours.
Thanks a lot Justin I’ll keep an eye on it
My pleasure.
The weekly chart shows also that this week could close just near last week’s high, indicating that buyers have lost momentum. But as you always say Mr. Bennett, patience is always vital in anticipating entry signals.
True. Not much doubt this is breaking down. The question is, will sellers follow through next week? We’ll see.
Thank you Sir,for this timely analysis.
You’re welcome. Enjoy your weekend.
Ngo na Lagos you base?
Sup Marcus, i am new and based in lagos. i would like to connect with you. ..emmanuel.
I traded the breakout and closed with 20 pips before the weekend.
Thanks
This is no comment but asking for a help First I want to thank you so much for me .The NZD/CAD YOU POSTED for my learning is not my blue berry demo platform please what is the proceedure to get there.iam a newbie.
Thanks Justin you are too much. As I type this now, 4hrs candle has closed below channel’s. I will have my eyes on it. Keep on with your good job.
Have a sound weekend!
Truth be told, for the first time, these analysis make sense to me after reading baby pips. Thanks for your consistence. Will be following in close range from now. Have a wonderful weekend.
I hope for a break down on this too. It will be nice to hold my a position for the first time, long enough to give me like 100pips.
Great view! Do you thing the G7 meeting have direct impact to this movement?
“You need to have a firm understanding of what the market is telling you. Otherwise, you will get caught on the wrong side of the market.” This my summary taken from this write up . Thanks.
Hey Justin.
Thank you so much for these good ideas.
I just have a question please: Trading the daily , which time frame we chould use to see the Price Action before open a position? H4 or H1
Thank you again!
Thank you Justin for sharing your trading idea with us. I am always grateful Sir.
But I have this thought about NZDCAD. I am not in any way trying to argue with you but just want to share what I think and so I could be corrected if I am wrong.
NZDCAD is keeping a daily range that started between the high from March 18th, 2014 and the low May 23rd of 2015 and now extended to the high of June 8, 2017 and the low of Nov. 16th, 2017.
The pair has broken both the down trend line from the high of June 8, 2017 and another down trend line from the high of March 14, 2018. Right now the uptrend line from the low of May 16, 2018 seem to be the angle controlling the market right now. An up fibonacci from from that low(May 16,2018) suggest market has a shallow retracement and need a pull back and the uptrend line from the May 16 low is expected to be the bounce before we look for a buying opportunity again. I have been following this pair and I participated in the first up swing where I bagged 130 pips. I agree with you that the market is likely going to go down but I think that will only be a short term pull back before the market will rise again.
Thanks Justin. I await your response Sir.
Been getting ripped apart on lower timeframes, your analysis and education about the higher timeframes is amazing, im short on gbp/jpy as my first ever swing trade,hope i have more success this way. Thank you
Thanks Justin for your insight on that. I have been looking this pair since the Support at 0.87858(middle May) and just waiting for a break. Should we wait for a break on 0.90666 level before any short entries? Thanks again for your heads up.
Justin, where or how to sign up for your lifetime membership?
Is there a fee to join your live trading forum, how much?
Hello Justin,
Do you still thing this pair is worth of the trading? The breakdown of upper channel occurred, but pair is not going under 0.9000. It is just swinging between 0.91 and 0.92.