In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD through March 20, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
The EURUSD confirmed a massive false break last week.
If you saw my March 2nd post, you know that I was targeting the 1.1450 resistance area following a break above 1.1170.
That idea played out perfectly.
Notice how the EURUSD never did close above the 1.1450 handle.
However, the pullback to new support was far too aggressive to think about buying the euro again.
I even told Daily Price Action members last week that I was anticipating a close back below 1.1170, and that I would look for a selling opportunity.
That’s exactly what happened on Friday.
Now, the real test will be whether or not sellers can keep the pair below 1.1170 on a daily closing basis.
At the moment, it seems the answer is, yes, they can.
In which case, I will continue to watch for selling opportunities for a move lower from the EURUSD.
Key support levels to keep an eye on include 1.1070, 1.0990, 1.0900, and 1.0825.
Alternatively, a daily close back above 1.1170 would negate the bearish outlook.
It seems the euro may finally fill that April 2017 gap at 1.0724.
In last week’s forecast video, I stated that the GBPUSD needed to take out 1.3170 resistance to extend the rally.
That 1.3170 area is the only reason I wasn’t on board with the bullish GBPUSD scenario.
Of course, I had no idea that the bottom of that 2019 channel would trigger such an intense selloff, but here we are.
Just like the EURUSD, I am anticipating further losses from the GBPUSD.
Given Friday’s close, key resistance for the week ahead comes in at 1.2380.
Support, on the other hand, comes in at 1.2200 and 1.2000.
A move below that 1.2000 area would put the GBPUSD back in “no man’s land” as far as key levels are concerned.
The USDJPY false break that confirmed on February 27th played out beautifully.
Following that close, the risk-sensitive pair lost more than 800 pips at last week’s low.
You can also see how the pair tested the bottom of that wedge support around 105.60.
However, Friday’s close puts the USDJPY back inside the multi-year wedge.
In situations like this, it’s usually best to give the market 24 to 48 hours to prove itself.
Friday’s move was either profit-taking before the weekend or signals a move higher for the coming week.
Either way, the market should show its hand within the first 24 to 48 hours of the new week.
On March 10th, I wrote about an NZDUSD terminal pattern.
The upper boundary of that structure extends from the 2014 high.
The lower boundary, on the other hand, dates back to the 2000 lows.
It’s no doubt a massive terminal pattern.
Here’s a view of the monthly time frame:
Hours after I released Tuesday’s post, I announced my NZDUSD short position in the membership forums.
So far, so good, as we can see that the NZDUSD fell by more than 300 pips just last week.
That position is well in profit, and I have no intention of exiting anytime soon.
Given the significance of the wedge support that extends from the 2000 lows, the break below it opens up much lower levels.
A few of those support levels include 0.5920, 0.5650, and 0.5330.
Even the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis lows around 0.5000 could come into play.
To clarify, I’m not saying this will happen.
There are no guarantees in this game.
And even if a 1,000 pip move lower is ahead of us, I’m not insinuating it will happen within days or weeks.
Any move of that significance would likely take months to play out.
But make no mistake, a breakdown from a twenty-year support level like the one above is likely to send the New Zealand dollar much, much lower.
Could this be a false break?
Of course. As with anything in trading or life, anything is possible.
That said, as long as the NZDUSD remains below that 0.6200 area I wrote about last Tuesday, I favor shorts here.
Contrary to popular belief, XAUUSD (gold) does not share a one-to-one inverse relationship with equities.
Just because stocks are selling off does not mean gold will appreciate during the same period.
The recent XAUUSD sell-off from 1700 is a perfect example.
However, I do think gold will have its time to shine again someday soon (no pun intended).
Watch the video above to see where I think XAUUSD will eventually find some support.
For now, though, we could see additional losses from the metal, especially if 1550 holds as new resistance this week.
Key support levels on the way down include 1480 and 1450.