Daily Price Action

EURUSD: Break Above 1.1170 to Target 1.1450


The EURUSD is picking up right where it left off last week.

The pair is already up 100 pips from Friday’s close, which cleared the 1.0990 key level.

Furthermore, if you watched Saturday’s Forex Forecast video, you know I was anticipating a move higher and eventual retest of the channel top near 1.1170.

That level isn’t far away now.

But the question now is, has the market gone too far too fast?

Nothing moves in a straight line, yet that’s what we’ve seen from the EURUSD since testing the channel bottom at 1.0780.

If today closes positive, it will improve the pair’s win streak to seven straight days.

So, where might the EURUSD start to struggle?

In my opinion, that 1.1150/70 resistance area won’t go down without a fight.

It’s the top of a channel that has directed the price action since the 2019 high, and is still very much in play.

At the same time, I’m not about to short the EURUSD.

As I mentioned in Saturday’s forecast video, this latest rally is a perfect illustration of a v-shaped recovery.

So while we will eventually see a pullback from the pair, it may only present a new buying opportunity.

Again, that’s just my opinion.

If you’re still apprehensive about buying the EURUSD, which is what I’ve favored since February 23rd, then waiting for 1.1170 to break isn’t a bad idea.

A daily close above that channel top near 1.1170 would open the door to the 1.1450 area.

The 1.1450 level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 to 2020 range, as well as the former range top between early 2015 and mid-2016.

Alternatively, a daily close below that 1.1170 area could trigger a rotation lower into 1.0990 support.

But to be clear, I’m still only interested in EURUSD longs, which is what I’ve been stating since February 23rd, especially if the pair can clear 1.1170.

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EURUSD breakout area

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John says

Hi Justin, I follow your videos every week, this week does not look normal, I believe many traders lost big on Thursday move. (I expected moving down from 1.0900-1,0940 to lower levels to fill the macron gap). now we have same situation. If we have a daily close above 1.1170 today or tomorrow, there is still possibility that market turn down after we open our buy orders. (false break) Unless we have a decent pull back and move up again. Can you justify your forecast with some fundamental facts. Thank you

    Justin Bennett says

    John, if you’ve followed me for a while as you say, then you know I don’t use fundamentals. I’m 100% technical.

    As always, I’ll let the price action do the talking.

      Peter says

      I very much agree with you Justin.

Davy says

Hey Justin we close now below 1.1170 why do you have a target of 1.1430?
Best regards

Nakirya Grace says

Good analysis

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