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In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, and GBPAUD through January 17, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
The EURUSD continued its sideways movement last week.
Friday carved a bullish engulfing candle, but it isn’t convincing enough for me to buy the pair.
Furthermore, the EURUSD is still within this consolidation zone between 1.1075 and 1.1180.
I’ve discussed this terminal pattern for several weeks.
In my opinion, it’s going to take a daily close below 1.1075 or above 1.1180 for the euro to establish itself.
A close below 1.1075 would expose the 1.0990 support area.
Alternatively, a daily close above the 2019 descending channel top near 1.1180 would open the door to the 1.1280 region.
Similar to EURUSD, the GBPUSD has been indecisive.
But as I wrote on Friday, this latest round of consolidation shouldn’t surprise anyone.
The pair has given us a few stellar opportunities lately.
So, some consolidation up here is warranted.
I also think the GBPUSD needs more time to reset.
In other words, continue its rotation lower, perhaps into the ascending channel support that extends from the 2019 low.
Until that occurs, I think the GBPUSD is one for the watch list.
The USDJPY ended last week at a critical resistance area.
I made a video about the significance of this 109.50 to 109.70 resistance zone last week.
It’s the intersection of a key horizontal level and the trend line that extends from the November 2018 highs.
We also looked at the recent false break below 108.40.
That false breakout may suggest that the USDJPY wants to move higher.
However, until we get a daily close above 109.70, this area will continue to attract sellers.
A close above 109.70 would expose the open gap from May of last year at 111.10.
Alternatively, bearish price action from 109.50/70 could send the USDJPY back to key support at 108.40.
GBPJPY is another one we’re keeping a close eye on.
I wrote about this ascending channel last Wednesday.
The confluence of support that has developed at 141.00 is particularly appealing to me.
That area could either trigger the next leg higher or signal the end to this short-term uptrend that began last September.
As always, it will depend on how this pullback unfolds.
A gradual retracement into 141.00 coupled with bullish price action could signal another rally toward the 148.00 resistance area.
Alternatively, a more aggressive pullback followed by a daily close below 141.00 would suggest weakness and expose 135.50 support.
The GBPAUD is one of the better-looking currency pairs at the moment.
I discussed the potential for a bearish reversal on Tuesday.
The bearish engulfing candle that formed recently on the weekly time frame looked especially ominous for the pair.
That’s especially true given that it developed at multi-year highs.
We also have what appeared to be a head and shoulders pattern on the daily time frame.
As you can see, the GBPAUD offered some decent follow-through on Friday.
I managed to put on a small short position from the 1.9100 area, which I also called out in the member’s area at the time.
However, I won’t be interested in adding to that position until we see a daily close below the neckline near 1.8700.
Such a close would confirm the head and shoulders reversal.
It would also open the door to key support levels such as 1.8420, 1.8100, and also the measured objective near 1.7800.
Alternatively, a move toward those multi-year highs at 1.9500 would negate the bearish scenario I just described.