The GBPJPY has been trending higher since September of last year.
Notice the higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart below.
However, a look at the price action since January of 2018 shows a lot of indecision from the GBPJPY.
But despite the seemingly choppy movement, this pair has produced some nice swings since the October 2016 low.
The key to taking advantage of these swings is timing.
That’s always the difference between the swing traders who grow accounts and those who don’t.
One way to time swings in any market is with the use of channels.
They can serve as guides during an uptrend or downtrend, and they can also indicate a turning point in the market.
As for the GBPJPY, I’m using an ascending channel for the latter.
If the GBPJPY did, in fact, reach a short-term top last December, a daily close below the confluence of support near 141.00 would likely attract sellers.
Remember that I use New York close Forex charts so that each 24-hour session opens and closes at 5 pm EST. These charts are required for trading price action.
Go here to get access to the same charts I use.
I’m not saying the pair will close below 141.00.
I have no idea what the GBPJPY will do or when it will do it; nobody does.
But I do think that this short-term uptrend that began last September relies on that confluence of support at 141.00.
That means we could either see a bounce from it and a new higher high, or a daily close below it.
I’m fine with either one, but I would be more interested in a break below 141.00 given the downtrend here since February 2018.
A close below the 141.00 area would expose the next key support at 135.50.
Alternatively, another push higher from support would likely encounter sellers near the last swing high just below 148.00.