In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD through April 17, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
The EURUSD broke above 1.0825 last week.
It’s a key level I mentioned in last Saturday’s forecast video.
You can even see where the EURUSD caught a bid from 1.0825 during Wednesday’s session.
At the other end, the euro encountered sellers at 1.0950, another key level I mentioned in last weekend’s video.
This leaves the EURUSD in a narrow trading range to start the new week.
The lack of direction and volatile movement are why I have no interest in the EURUSD at the moment.
However, if you watched the video above, you know the pair is nearing the end of a multi-year terminal pattern.
That eventual breakout, in my opinion, is what will fuel the euro over the coming weeks and months.
The GBPUSD consolidation continues.
Last week saw the pair trading between 1.2200 support and 1.2470 resistance.
I mentioned last weekend how I wasn’t interested in the GBPUSD due to the range-bound price action.
The same applies to the start of this week.
Until the pound closes above 1.2470 or below 1.2200, this back and forth action will continue.
A close above 1.2470 would open the door to 1.2600 while a close below 1.2200 would target 1.2000.
I wrote about USDJPY on Thursday.
The key takeaway from that post was that Thursday’s close below 108.50 signaled potential weakness.
We saw the USDJPY lose some ground on Friday, but it’s difficult to use that as a barometer given the low levels of volume before the weekend.
That said, as long as the pair stays below that 108.50 area on a daily closing basis, I will remain short.
Key support comes in at 106.80/90, followed by the 105.50 area.
Be sure to watch the video above to see a simplified version of what’s happening to the USDJPY.
I wrote about the potential for an NZDUSD rally on March 24th.
I also talked about a move higher to 0.6200 last Tuesday.
Since my March 24th post, the NZDUSD has gained 250 pips.
To be clear, I’m not interested in buying the New Zealand dollar given the bearish momentum and recent multi-year breakdown.
I explain that breakdown in the video above.
Instead, I’m interested in selling the NZDUSD from higher prices.
One area I’m keeping a very close eye on is the confluence of resistance near the 0.6200 region.
That’s the bottom of a multi-year wedge that extends from the 2000 lows.
0.6200 is also a key horizontal level that’s been in place for several years, as well as the top of a short-term descending channel.
So, that 0.6200 is the area I want to short from, but not before then.
XAUUSD played out perfectly for Daily Price Action members last week.
On April 3rd, I posted a 4-hour chart that signaled an imminent breakout.
I even told members that a break above the 1615 area would target the 1690 area I discussed last weekend.
Sure enough, XAUUSD broke 1615 and put in a high of 1690 on Friday.
There was even a second opportunity on the 1-hour time frame that we discussed in the member forums several times last week.
Looking at the bigger picture here, I still think XAUUSD has more room to move higher.
The uptrend is intact, and even a pullback to 1550 wouldn’t change that.
That said, I would like to see the 1640 area hold as support this week.
As long as it does, the immediate focus will be on whether XAUUSD bulls can clear the 1700 resistance area on a daily closing basis.
A daily close above 1700 would open the door to 1800.