Get 40% Off
to Daily Price Action.
Ends May 31st!
In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY, and XAUUSD through April 10, 2020.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
The volatility continued last week for the EURUSD.
As you can see, the euro broke several support levels, including 1.1010, 1.0950, and 1.0825.
We’ll have to see where the EURUSD opens on Monday, but that 1.0825 could attract sellers this week.
As for key support, I’d keep an eye on the 1.0725 region.
However, I’m not especially interested in trading the EURUSD.
Get Instant Access to the Same "New York Close" Forex Charts Used by Justin Bennett!
The pair remains volatile and lacks direction.
If anything, I will watch to see how the market responds to a retest of 1.0725 support should we get it this week.
The GBPUSD spent most of last week consolidating.
It wasn’t until Friday that sellers regained a little momentum.
But despite the late-week move lower, the GBPUSD remains range-bound for the week ahead.
Only a daily close below 1.2200 or above 1.2470 would change that.
Just keep in mind that a move above 1.2470 would encounter resistance near 1.2600.
That’s the bottom of the descending channel from last December.
While the GBPUSD could offer a favorable trade in the coming days, I think there are better opportunities out there.
Structurally, the USDCAD is ideal for a swing trader like me.
I wrote about the pair a couple of times last week.
The takeaway from both posts is that USDCAD buyers need to clear channel resistance on a daily closing basis to expose higher levels.
One such level is 1.4650.
But as long as channel resistance is intact, the pair is vulnerable to breaking below the short-term trend line from March 27th.
I love the structure here, but I need to see more from the USDCAD to add to the small position I started last week.
I also announced that entry in the member forums.
I remain short the EURJPY going into the new week.
The hammer/hanging man that formed on March 26th signaled an end to the 500-pip relief rally.
I added to that position following Wednesday’s close below the short-term ascending channel I wrote about on Friday.
The EURJPY will either test the bottom of that channel as new resistance or move lower this week to close below 116.00 support.
Either way, I think the pair is a sell.
One reason I favor shorts is last year’s break below a multi-year trend line.
See the monthly chart in Friday’s post.
A daily close below 116.00 would expose the next key support at 111.40.
Only a close back inside the ascending channel in the chart below would negate or at least delay the bearish outlook.
In my opinion, XAUUSD (gold) is going much higher in the coming months and years.
The short-term direction, on the other hand, is more difficult to read.
It doesn’t help that both February and March produced indecision candles on the monthly time frame.
March was exceptionally volatile, reaching support at 1450 and topping out in the 1700 resistance area.
That’s the range that has to break for gold to regain its momentum.
As long as XAUUSD is below that 1700 resistance area, the consolidation will continue.
Key support comes in at 1550 and, of course, 1450.
Despite the recent volatility, the uptrend is very much intact, which means I have to favor longs here.
But timing is critical, especially during periods of heightened volatility.
For that reason, it may be best to wait for either a rotation into 1550 or perhaps 1450, or a close above 1700 for a run at 1800.