This week’s EURUSD price action has been less than telling, but that could change on Thursday.
In today’s video, I provide an update on the current state of the EURUSD, including key levels to watch and my bias as things stand today.
Plus, I share the latest on the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it fights with 102.60 resistance ahead of Thursday’s US CPI and unemployment claims.
Watch the video below and scroll down for the annotated charts and analysis.
EURUSD remains locked between 1.0880 support and the trend line from the July 17th closing price.
I discussed this trend line in last weekend’s forecast video, and so far, EURUSD has remained below it on a daily closing basis.
However, markets are still relatively illiquid following the recent holiday season.
We also haven’t had much in the way of event risk this week, but that’s about to change with Thursday’s US CPI numbers and unemployment claims.
I’m willing to bet that those events force the EURUSD out of its comfort zone.
The question is, which way will the euro break?
Time will tell, but I remain cautiously bullish on the dollar, given what we’ve seen so far from the DXY and even pairs like USDCAD.
Of course, that translates to me being cautiously bearish on the euro.
But the key factor to see the EURUSD trade lower this month is a sustained break below 1.0880.
That would open up levels like 1.0755.
Alternatively, a sustained break above 1.0955 on the daily time frame would expose the 1.1000 resistance level.
I won’t be a buyer on a break toward 1.1000 simply because EURUSD bulls failed to hold the pair above that mark earlier this month.
In summary, I’m cautiously bearish on the EURUSD, but Thursday’s events will offer some much-needed clarity.
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