On Sunday, we looked at a bearish EURUSD scenario.
Following the close above the 1.1170 area on March 5th, the EURUSD hit our target at 1.1450.
However, the pullback into that 1.1170 region was far too aggressive to think about buying the pair, in my opinion.
Then on Friday, the EURUSD closed back below the descending channel top that extends from the 2019 high.
Last week’s close confirmed the false break and opened up downside targets, including 1.1070, 1.0990, and 1.0900.
Monday’s retest of 1.1170 wasn’t perfect, though.
The pair even closed just above that level.
But as I’ve mentioned in the past, these levels are often areas or zones rather than exact prices.
That’s especially the case when dealing with extreme levels of volatility like we’ve seen recently.
Fast forward to today, and the EURUSD is well off of Monday’s close.
The pair continues to look weak as it tests the 1.0990 support level.
If you watched Sunday’s forecast video, you know I was in favor of targeting the open gap from April 2017 at 1.0724.
That may have sounded like a lofty target over the weekend, but the recent false break above 1.1170 was likely to produce an extended move lower.
So far, that’s exactly what we’ve seen from the EURUSD.
As for key levels in the meantime, I will be keeping a close eye on 1.0990, 1.0900, and 1.0825.
If the EURUSD closes below 1.0990 today, it will open the door to 1.0900 and 1.0825.
On the other hand, a daily close above 1.0990 today could trigger a retest of the 1.1070 area as new resistance.
All in all, though, I like EURUSD lower toward that April 2017 gap at 1.0724.