EURCAD Sellers Look to Confirm 1,300 Pip Reversal Today

by Justin Bennett  · 

August 14, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

August 14, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

August 14, 2018

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.


For weeks now we’ve been tracking the EURCAD selloff. I first mentioned the idea of a possible collapse in the member’s area in late June while the pair was trading at 1.5580. Then came the break below 1.5315 in July and last week’s rejection from the 1.5150 resistance area.

However, the more significant pattern that promises a lasting decline has yet to materialize. Until today’s session perhaps.

The Euro cross is currently trading well below the head and shoulders neckline support at 1.4970. You can see how the pair closed back above this level before yesterday’s close (using a New York close chart) to keep the support area intact.

Buyers have their work cut out for them if they intend to continue to hold 1.4970 as support though. With the pair trading 70 pips below the level as I type this, the odds of a late session rally are diminishing.

Still, it’s essential to wait for a daily close below the neckline in order to confirm the 1,300 pip head and shoulders pattern. That’s particularly true for a relatively volatile pair like the EURCAD.

As mentioned last week, a close below 1.4970 would open the door to the next key support at 1.4740. A break below that would expose the confluence of support at 1.4500 which has been my target since my initial entry at 1.5580 in late June.

The measured objective here comes in quite a bit lower than that. While I do think the 2016 and 2017 lows at 1.3800 will be a factor, the objective doesn’t come into play until 1.3650.

As I wrote last Friday, it’s important to keep in mind that even if the pair does move that far south, it won’t be a smooth ride. There are bound to be several bumps along the way including but not limited to the 1.4740 area and especially the 1.4500 handle.

It also won’t be quick. Even a move to 1.4500 will likely take another month or two to play out, so you can imagine how long it might take for sellers to reach 1.3800 or 1.3650.

I remain short from 1.5580 in late June. I’ve since added to the position at 1.5300 and again during the retest of new resistance at 1.5150. I’ve discussed each of these ideas on this website over the last few weeks.

To learn everything you need to know about the head and shoulders pattern, see this lesson.

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EURCAD head and shoulders reversal

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  1. I have learn something unique here in price action and I have learn through your free webinar and I real love all the lessons there and I would love to join the community but I’m penniless now

  2. Sir you said you started this rally from 1.5580 in June please were all the group members aware and followed the ride? The reason I asked this question is to know whether everybody in your group will have that enough patience and is it that some have closed their positions along the way because I am amazed to see now that right from 1.5580 till date we have over 600pips if I am right. Honestly speaking I have not gone so far I FOREX trading to have a target of 500pips in a position. Thanks still waiting and watching well-done Boss

    1. I sure did. I posted in the member’s area on June 25th that I had just sold the pair at 1.5580. I also included a chart at the time. The pair was trading at 1.5568 at the time I posted in the member’s area on the 25th of June.

      Of course, whether or not they sold and continued to hold their position isn’t up to me.

      1. Thank you Coach for a good job you are doing and for this kind of uncommon hearth that i have never seen in the community of FOREX TRADER.To be honest with you this kind of information you are given here is what many of us have paid for on line before.Once again thank you for the job well done.Soon become one of the members

  3. Justin if there is anything i have learnt from you that would be patience you have taught me to wait for market to do its job and honestly it is paying off i short GBPCAD on August 2nd and i am still holding that position same with all head and shoulder patterns. big thank you my couch

    1. You’re welcome. That is the single biggest key to success in my opinion. A lack of patience can sabotage an otherwise effective approach, while an abundance of patience can put success within reach of even the most dysfunctional trading process.

      1. Very wise words Justin. Rushing in for fear of missing out, is 1 of the costliest trading mistakes. Discernment goes out of the window as fomo comes in.

  4. Great work Justin. You are truly a great trader with a big heart who can give some much information for free. Thanks a lot.

    1. You’re welcome, Howard. So far so good.

      The GBPCAD was a bit of a leading indicator here since breaking below the neckline last month. It’s now down more than 500 pips from that 1.7180 level.

      Here it is for those who missed it:

  5. Dear Justin, EUR/CAD is bounced up back at 1.4911 from 1.4797 right now so does it a selling opportunity (to short) given by the market? As over all trend is down.

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