Daily Price Action
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AUDJPY: Keep an Eye on 82.35

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

The AUDJPY has been a relatively difficult pair to read lately. And one thing I’ve learned over the years is that if a market’s structure isn’t evident at first glance, it’s best to stand aside.

By removing any urge to trade that particular market, you become a neutral bystander. That means you can wait patiently to allow the price action to works itself out. And it always does!

The AUDJPY is an excellent example. The chop that formed in late June didn’t do buyers or sellers any favors, nor did the recent false break above descending channel resistance. It’s been pretty ugly if I’m honest.

However, four weeks after the choppy price action began, it appears the pair may be gearing up for its next move.

In my opinion, the close above the trend line you see below on July 9th was a false break. The same goes for the close above channel resistance a few days later on the 12th.

With today’s session dropping back below the trend line that extends from the year to date low, it’s up to sellers to force a sub 82.35 close. Remember, I use New York close charts, so I’m referring to the “true” session close at 5 pm EST.

If the AUDJPY does close below 82.35, it will re-expose the 2018 range support at 80.60. That, of course, assumes that the recent breaks on the 9th and 12th of July were false breaks.

As always, I’ll remain on the sideline until we get a close below 82.35 and once I see sellers hold their ground on a retest of the area as new resistance.

Keep in mind that this is a sideways market so if you’re more comfortable having momentum at your back, this type of entry probably isn’t for you. Instead, you may want to wait for a daily close below the year to date low near 80.60.

There’s also no rule that says you can’t scale in if and when sellers reestablish themselves. In fact, that’s what I do in almost every circumstance.

In summary, a daily close below 82.35 would likely attract fresh offers and also re-expose key support at 80.60 with a close below that opening the door to 78.90.

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AUDJPY trend lines on the daily

Leave a Comment:

9 comments
STANLEY says

Thank my mentor, i will keep my eyes on this areas.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Bogatsu says

The pair is in a range and agree with you that the target is around 80.6 area. Been short since last week Thursday after the large tailed bar from resistance at 83.8 (H4). For continuation, I am hoping that today’s bar closes beyond the large spinning top of Friday and then look for an opportunity to scale in. It’s already broken as I type this but the close would be interesting.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    There’s also some support just above 82.00, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce there.

    Reply
      Bogatsu says

      Will have a look, thanks. I really appreciated what you are doing for us.

      Reply
Majid ali says

Learning is the gate not the house you first have to go through the gate to get to the house “MIYAMOTO MUSASHI ” 17th century samurai

Reply
I suck@FOREX says

howzit man,i’ve been blowing my accounts left,right and centre.What do i have to do to become a relatively profitable trader?

Reply
    Emmanuel says

    Be Patient. Justin pls update on usdjpy

    Reply
    Roy says

    Start trading the higher timeframes. Join our commumity.

    Reply
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