Weekly Crypto Forecast (March 20-24, 2023)

Today’s weekly crypto forecast covers the DXY, TOTAL, BTC, ETH, and VET.

DXY is approaching a massive confluence of support ahead of FOMC, while Bitcoin trades just below a multi-year macro resistance level.

I discuss all of that in today’s video. Plus, a must hold level for Ethereum bulls and an intraday breakdown from VET.

I share my thoughts in the video below, but remember to scroll down for more annotated charts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY is breaking below its 103.50 yearly open today.

That could be a sign of weakness toward the confluence of support at 102.60.

Of course, the alternative to that is a close below 103.50 today, followed by a bullish reclaim later this week.

For now, though, all of the price action from DXY since the 105.60 retest is consolidation.

Sustained dollar strength will come on a reclaim of 104.12 and 105.60, with critical support this week coming in at 102.60.

Total Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL) Forecast

TOTAL is approaching the $1.18T range resistance I mentioned last week.

That’s an area that served as support during the last phase of the 2021 bull market, and range resistance starting in August 2022.

Although we could see a breakout from that area, I would be surprised to see it on the first try.

That’s especially true considering the long liquidations that have piled up below $24,000 BTC.

So for now, the $1.18T area for TOTAL is key resistance with $1.08T key support.

A higher time frame close below $1.08T would be bearish for the crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Forecast

Bitcoin is hovering just below the $28,800 macro resistance area.

It served as support in 2021 and the first half of 2022, so I’d expect sellers to defend it as new resistance this month.

BTC is also trading above channel resistance from September 2022, which currently comes in near $26,400.

That’s the level BTC bulls need to stay above on the higher time frames, as a close below would open up $25,200 and lower.

In the short-term, we have a trend line from the 17th that’s supporting the uptrend.

A close below that level could send Bitcoin back to the September 2022 channel top near $26,400.

Remember that we have FOMC this Wednesday, so expect volatility around 2:30 pm EST.

Ethereum (ETHUSDT) Forecast

Ethereum recently broke out of the September 2021 trend line I’ve discussed.

That level comes in at $1,680 this week, which is now a must-hold level for ETH bulls.

We also have the recent highs at $1,720 to serve as support.

However, so far Ethereum has struggled at the September 2022 high at $1,780.

That’s the level bulls have to reclaim on the daily time frame to keep the rally going.

Alternatively, a daily close back below $1,680 would confirm the bearish fakeout and open up levels like $1,560 and $1,500.

VeChain (VETUSDT) Forecast

VET is breaking down from a short-term trend line today at $0.0236.

There’s a decent chance we get a $0.0215 retest this week, as that’s the location of the recent bullish fakeout and the golden pocket.

But that’s a must-hold area for bulls.

A daily close below $0.0215 would open up the $0.0195 lows and potentially lower.

Whether VET is able to rally from $0.0215 (if we get the restest) later this week will depend on several factors, including what BTC is doing regarding the levels above.