Weekly Crypto Forecast (March 13-17, 2023)

Today’s weekly crypto forecast covers the DXY, S&P 500, BTC, ETH, and VET.

Bitcoin is up an impressive 20% in the last 24 hours.

However, the S&P 500 closed below its all-time high trend line on Friday and is flirting with an even more significant breakdown today.

And all of that is occurring while the DXY tests its yearly open.

So what does all of that mean for crypto?

I share my thoughts in the video below, but remember to scroll down for more annotated charts.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is testing a significant support level today at 103.50.

That’s the yearly open for the dollar index and an area that’s been influential since December.

It’s tough to get too bearish on the dollar while it’s above 103.50 on the higher time frames.

However, the DXY is also trading below recent range lows at 104.12.

So until dollar bulls reclaim that level on the 4-hour time frame or higher, the USD looks weak.

Time will tell if sellers push the DXY below 103.50 on the higher time frames for a run at 102.60 and potentially the 101.00 area.

The alternative would be a reclaim of 104.12 for a rally back to 105.60 key resistance

S&P 500 (SPX500)

The S&P 500 closed Friday below a critical trend line from the all-time high.

It’s a level I’ve discussed with members for months and one that was serving as support until last week’s close.

You can see how the 3,910 level is serving as resistance today.

However, there’s the SPX remains above the March 2020 channel support at 3,870.

That’s a must-hold level for bulls, as a daily close below it would be bearish and open up much lower levels, including 3,780 and 3,570.

The SPX will have to reclaim 3,910 this week on a daily closing basis to turn bullish again.

Until that time, the index is locked between 3,870 support and 3,910 resistance.

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT)

Bitcoin is having a crazy start to the week, with a 20% gain in the last 24 hours.

I initially thought we’d see $18,400 before a rally, but BTC had other plans.

For now, Bitcoin is holding above the $23,800 key level, so any higher time frame close below that could set up a deviation.

However, at this point, we also have to consider the likelihood of a move above $25,200 resistance to flush the shorts that have built up around $26,000.

A deviation above $25,200 is probably the best risk to reward play right now.

Ethereum (ETHUSDT)

Although not quite as impressive as Bitcoin’s rally, Ethereum is up an impressive 15% since Sunday’s open.

ETH is also trading back above the $1,590 key level.

However, the bigger test for Ethereum bulls lies at $1,700, as that’s the September 2021 trend line I have discussed recently.

A daily close above $1,700 this week would open up the August 2022 high near $2,000.

That’s also where the majority of short liquidations end for ETH.

Alternatively, a higher time frame close back below $1,590 would open up $1,500 and $1,420.

VeChain (VETUSDT)

VET reclaimed its range lows on Sunday, and bulls are following through today.

Given the bullish reclaim, I think a move back to the $0.0268 to $0.0284 area has to be considered.

That will be a significant test for VET bulls and an area where we could see a reversal.

But as long as VETUSDT stays above $0.0215, those range lows are intact as support.