Will Bitcoin punish late shorts, or is $100,000 next? Get the details in today’s BTC video, including an update on my short position and the latest on Tether dominance (USDT.D).
Bitcoin rallied over the weekend as retail traders scrambled to recover the $104,800 key level. However, the key words there are “retail traders.”
Retail traders usually drive weekend trading. Whales, which are large traders and institutions, are most active Monday through Friday.
In other words, weekend moves lack conviction. That’s not always the case, but it’s something to be aware of when evaluating the price action between Saturday and Sunday.
With that in mind, traders should take Bitcoin closing above $104,800 on Sunday with a grain of salt. We may get some relief toward the $106,600 resistance, but sellers remain in control.
That’s also true when viewing Tether dominance. Note that USDT.D tends to move inversely to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Last week, I discussed how 4.37% is the key level to watch on USDT.D. It was resistance throughout May, so a sustained break above it should flip the level to support.
That’s precisely what we’ve seen so far from USDT.D.
Sunday’s close was near 4.37%, but the market closed just above it. However, I’m not ruling out an intraday wick down to 4.66% to fill in the May 29th imbalance.
That could result in a retest of the $106,600 BTC resistance. It’s the previous range highs from December and January and a key level Bitcoin failed to hold above last week.
If Bitcoin bulls can keep the price above $104,800 at today’s 8 pm EST close, it will maintain the $104,800 to $106,600 range.
I would like to see a $106,600 retest, primarily to fill the May 28th imbalance at $106,800. Any material weakness from there could spark the next leg down for BTC.
But make no mistake, my focus remains on the $100,000 region in June. There is significant liquidity in the area, making it a prime target should the $106,600 resistance level hold this week.
BTC also has an imbalance at $97,700 from the May 8th rally. Time will tell if we see that filled in before Bitcoin bulls are ready to step in.
Alternatively, a sustained break above $106,800 on the high time frames this week would be bullish for BTC.
