Today I’m going to share my XAUUSD trade plan for the next few weeks.
I’ll also discuss the latest US Dollar Index (DXY) technicals ahead of Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.
Watch the video below and scroll down for the annotated charts and analysis.
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On August 2nd, I made a video titled “XAUUSD: Bullish on Gold? Not So Fast!”.
Unsurprisingly, it wasn’t my most popular video.
The majority of retail has been bullish gold for weeks.
That was easy enough to see from a simple scroll through your favorite social media feed.
However, the price action from the dollar and the way XAUUSD was weighing on the $1,935 support area had me leaning bearish on gold.
We’re seeing XAUUSD break below $1,935 this week, and also the November 2022 trend line.
We may get a retest of that trend line heading into Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) volatility, but my sights are on the $1,895 support area.
A bounce from that region may set up an even bigger opportunity later this month on a retest of the $1,945 to $1,950 area as new resistance.
One reason we’re seeing XAUUSD weaken here is the resilience of the dollar, but also the vulnerability from the stock market.
Although gold can perform well in a risk-off environment, it tends to drop with risk assets during the initial phase of deleveraging.
The same can be seen during the 2007/2008 financial crisis and again in March 2020 as the panic from COVID took hold.
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