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XAUUSD buyers haven’t done it quite yet, but they’re getting close.
The idea hinges on the 1480 confluence of resistance.
Buyers need to close XAUUSD above that 1480 area in order to send gold higher, perhaps into the next key resistance at 1515.
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Notice how 1480 is the location of a horizontal level as well as a trend line that extends from the year-to-date high.
That trend line looks to be part of a falling wedge pattern.
Given the aggressive rally earlier this year and the consolidation that’s taken place since, I have to stay relatively bullish the XAUUSD.
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Furthermore, the constant pressure on 1480 makes me think a break higher isn’t far away now.
Notice the higher lows into 1480 over the last few weeks.
We saw the NZDUSD do the same thing during the second half of November when the pair was below that 0.6440 resistance area.
In fact, the price action looks almost identical.
But as always, there are no guarantees. And until XAUUSD bulls close the pair above 1480 on a daily closing basis, the idea lacks conviction.
Remember that a break higher could see 1515 and perhaps the year-to-date high around 1550.
Alternatively, a rotation lower would likely encounter support at 1450.