In this weekly market forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, BTCUSDT, and ETHUSDT through April 1, 2022.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
EURUSD continues to move sideways between multi-decade support at 1.0870 and the 2008 trend line at 1.1080.
At the moment, I have no interest in trading EURUSD given the overall choppy price action. I’d rather wait for a breakout in either direction.
But as mentioned recently, I would prefer to trade an upward breakout above 1.1080 as any shorts below 1.0870 are more likely to backfire, in my opinion.
However, that doesn’t mean it will happen.
Above 1.1080 is 1.1270, followed by 1.1480. Below 1.0870 is 1.0650 and 1.0350.
After a close above 1.3200 with momentum on the 22nd, GBPUSD has turned mostly unfavorable again.
The pair closed the week just below 1.3200, making it clear that the weekly time frame is still treating this level as resistance.
That makes GBPUSD rather unfavorable as we start the new week. It will most likely take the first day or two of price action to determine where the pound is headed.
Key support below 1.3200 comes in at 1.3000, while resistance is near 1.3380.
USDCAD broke below the May trend line last week at 1.2570. I’ve mentioned the potential for this breakdown a few times recently.
That breakdown offered a short opportunity on Thursday for what is now a 93 pip profit.
However, USDCAD ended Friday just above key support at 1.2450. That’s the location of the January lows.
It’s going to take a close below that to open up 1.2300. Alternatively, a bounce from 1.2450 could test the May trend line near 1.2600.
Bitcoin bulls have their work cut out this week. BTC tested the key $45,000-$46,000 resistance area on Friday but failed to close above it.
I’ve mentioned this area for weeks. It’s going to take at least a daily close above $46,200 (yearly open) to expose $50,000-$53,000.
However, given the significance of $46,000, I would prefer to see a weekly close above it to confirm any breakout.
Until then, $45,000-$46,000 is critical resistance.
Near-term support for Bitcoin comes in at $43,200. That’s a confluence of support based on the March 13th trend line and a previous horizontal resistance area.
Keep in mind that any bounce from the $43,200 area this weekend, if tested, has to do with the $46,000 area this week.
ETH could follow BTC for a pullback this weekend toward the $3,000 area. That was previous resistance for Ethereum earlier this month.
I wouldn’t want to see Ethereum close back below the March 1st close at $2,976. That’s the line in the sand, in my opinion.
But as long as ETHUSDT is above that region on a daily closing basis, I like it higher toward $3,250, $3,400, and potentially $3,600.