Today’s weekly forex forecast covers the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and NZDUSD.
The DXY technicals are finally starting to come together, and we have some incredible potential trade setups forming on pairs like USDCAD and NZDUSD.
Watch the video and scroll down to view the charts to prepare for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY has been a difficult market to read lately.
Last week reclaimed the 104.12 key level after bouncing from the 103.50 yearly open, but bulls failed to hold above it on Friday.
Unless dollar bulls can recover early next week, we may see a push into the confluence of support at 102.60.
Alternatively, a breakout from this descending channel could send the DXY back to 105.60.
That 105.60 level is the level to watch for dollar strength, but it will take a daily close above it to confirm the breakout.
Similar to the DXY, the EURUSD has been a difficult market to read this month.
We saw a fakeout above the 4-hour range resistance at 1.0690 last week, and now it appears like we’re getting a retest of that failed level.
Whether that becomes a short setup will depend on several factors, including the DXY levels above.
But I’m not interested in trading the EURUSD while it’s sideways and indecisive.
So I’ll wait for resolution, preferably a sustained break below the 1.0540 neckline for a move lower.
However, a new downtrend for the euro hinges on the dollar index getting above 105.60 on the higher time frames.
GBPUSD confirmed the 1.1915 bullish reclaim earlier this month, and has since offered a decent rally.
However, the pound struggled at the 1.2200 mid-range (resistance) that I discussed in last weekend’s forecast.
That’s the level bulls need to break on the higher time frames.
Do that, and I think we see a retest of 1.2445 range resistance.
The must-hold level for GBPUSD bulls is the 1.1915 range support that was reclaimed on March 9th.
USDCAD is holding above the 1.3660 key level after closing above it on March 7th.
The pair is also carving a triangle pattern on the intraday charts, hinting at a possible bullish continuation next week.
However, bulls will have to get above the 1.3760 area on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts to confirm the break.
Targets from there include 1.3880 and the October 13th high near 1.4000.
The only way I’ll flip bearish on the USDCAD is if we see it start to lose 1.3660 on the higher time frames.
Like GBPUSD, the NZDUSD also confirmed a bullish reclaim earlier this month.
The pair closed below the 0.6160 area on March 7th, but closed back above on the 13th.
We even got a bullish pin bar on Thursday’s retest of 0.6160 as new support.
On the 4-hour time frame, NZDUSD could be carving an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline at 0.6263.
Friday closed just above, but I need to see more from bulls early this week to show that the pair has flipped that level to support.
If NZDUSD can get above 0.6263 this week on the higher time frames, we could see a move toward 0.6385 and potentially the measured objective at 0.6435.
Alternatively, a break below 0.6150 would negate the bullish scenario above.