Today I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading the US Dollar Index (DXY), EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD.
Markets remain sideways ahead of the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the new year.
However, several pairs could offer incredible opportunities in the week ahead with the appropriate price action, including but not limited to GBPUSD and AUDUSD.
I’ll discuss all of that and more in today’s video, including key levels and targets for next week.
Let’s begin!
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US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY failed to break 103.50 for the second week.
That’s not surprising, given its significance since 2016.
With this week’s first FOMC of the year, everything hinges on 103.50 resistance, 103.10, and 102.60 support.
The 102.60 region is now a must-hold for bulls, and it will take a sustained break above 102.60 to expose 104.20.
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EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD remains indecisive following the October trend line break last week.
I’m not a big fan of trading the euro in the middle of this 1.0755 – 1.1000 range.
Given the upcoming FOMC, we can expect volatility and potentially a fill of Wednesday’s upper wick toward 1.0920.
But ultimately, this is a range-bound market until proven otherwise.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD has quickly become one of my favorite charts in the Forex market.
Although the price action since December is incredibly choppy, the macro view is one of the cleanest I’ve seen in a while.
As discussed on Friday, the bearish scenario for GBPUSD will be a sustained break below 1.2600 to offer the first lower low since last September.
Alternatively, a sustained break above 1.2770 following FOMC would open up higher levels.
Between the two scenarios, I would prefer a bearish break, purely from a risk-to-reward ratio, but I won’t trade GBPUSD without confirmation.
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AUDUSD Forecast
AUDUSD hasn’t done much since retesting 0.6520 support earlier this month.
However, the pair is still holding below the 2022 trend line I mentioned a couple of weeks ago.
I’m not interested in trading AUDUSD while it’s sideways or before FOMC, but a sustained break below 0.6520 would be appealing.
That would show follow-through from bears following the recent fakeout, and open up the 2023 lows.
Alternatively, a sustained break above 0.6620 would negate the bearish idea.
USDCAD Forecast
USDCAD is holding above the 2021 trend line it reclaimed to start the year.
However, bulls have struggled at 1.3480 resistance on the weekly time frame.
For the week ahead, 1.3370 is support with resistance at 1.3480 on a weekly closing basis.
That means USDCAD needs to sustain a weekly close above 1.3480 to open up 1.3600.
Alternatively, a sustained break below 1.3370 would negate the bullish idea.
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