The DXY is holding critical support, EURUSD and GBPUSD are showing bullish reclaims, while gold bulls keep their foot on the gas.
Here’s what I’m watching and the exact levels I’ll be trading around next week.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
DXY bounced from 97.50 last week and stalled at 98.10–98.50. The weekly close held just above 97.70, so that level is still intact.
This market has been sideways for months. Bigger picture, the index is still coming off that 2011 channel low, which makes it tough to lean too bearish here.
Support sits at 97.70 and 97.50. Resistance is layered at 98.10 and 98.50. A confirmed break under 97.70 would open 97.27 and 96.80.
If DXY holds above 97.70 and clears 98.10, then 98.50 is the next stop. Lose 97.70 and we’re likely heading into 97.27 and possibly the channel bottom at 96.80.
It’s still a range trader’s market. Until we see a clean breakout, I’ll respect support and resistance.
EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD is coming off the top of its channel on the weekly chart. Price has tested that resistance twice now without follow-through.
Support is clear at 1.1645, which lines up with the composite POC from last summer’s consolidation. The euro bounced from that level last week.
On the daily, we’re watching the February trend line that recently broke. Price reclaimed 1.1730 on Friday, turning that level back into support.
If 1.1730 holds, EURUSD has room to push toward 1.1780. That imbalance above is still open and could draw price higher.
Lose 1.1730 and I’ll look for 1.1645 to come back into play. Above 1.1780, resistance is still the channel high.
For now the euro is stuck in a range. Trade the edges until we get a confirmed breakout.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD also gave us a failed breakdown. Price closed below 1.3380 two weeks ago but quickly reclaimed the level.
That reclaim turned short-term momentum higher, and we’ve since seen a bounce back into consolidation.
The big level to watch is 1.3580. That’s where the next imbalance sits and it could act as both a target and resistance.
On the four-hour, the pair reclaimed a key unfinished auction area. That retest as support gives bulls a catalyst for higher prices.
If GBPUSD holds above 1.3380, I’ll look for a move into 1.3580. Slip back under 1.3380 and the range breaks down.
Like the euro, this market is sideways. Respect the range until we get confirmation either way.
Gold (XAUUSD) Forecast
Gold is still trending higher inside an ascending channel from mid-September. The series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the bias bullish.
Key support is 3860. That’s the three-day composite POC and it lines up with recent four-hour closes.
A pullback into that area early next week could offer buyers a base. As long as the channel holds, pullbacks favor longs.
If gold breaks 3860 and loses the channel low, then I’ll watch for deeper pullbacks into open sell-side imbalances. Until then, the trend is up.
On the upside, 4000 is still possible in the weeks ahead. Momentum is strong and the weak dollar adds fuel.
Bottom line, stick with the trend. Look to buy dips while the channel holds and avoid shorting this market.
