The EURUSD tested my 1.0350 target on Friday, but is the bottom in, or does the euro have lower to go?
Get the details on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD in today’s weekly forecast video.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The US dollar hit a significant resistance level on Friday at 108.00.
It’s a level that served as a pivot in 2022, so it’s not surprising to see the DXY sell off from that area.
Friday’s rally was also significant in that it swept the 2023 high, which had served as a range high for the dollar for over a year.
So, the big question now is, has the DXY run its course?
In other words, is the top in?
While nobody knows what the future holds, and 108.00 was my end-of-year target, I remain bullish on the US dollar toward 109.00 to 110.00.
The invalidation is the October trend line near 105.00.
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD reached my end-of-year target last week at 1.0350, well before anticipated, not that it’s a bad thing.
I discussed my 1.0350 target several times in recent videos as an imbalance from 2023.
The lack of a 1.0350 retest in 2022 combined with the 1.0450 lows signaled a pocket of liquidity near 1.0350.
Markets seek liquidity, so 1.0350 was the logical target.
However, I’m not convinced that the bottom is in for the euro.
We could see relief rallies while above 1.0350 and 1.0450, but it’s too soon to call a macro bottom.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD also reached my target last week at 1.2560, which is the trend line off the 2023 lows.
That was my target following the 1.2850 breakdown, and a level that should have attracted buyers.
We saw a slight bounce from GBPUSD on Monday, but the relief rally is fading.
If GBPUSD can hold above 1.2560 today, we could get some relief into the 1.2650 region.
However, as mentioned with EURUSD, I’m not convinced the bottom is in just yet.
USDCAD Forecast
USDCAD is holding above a key breakout level at 1.3870.
I’ve discussed this area a few times in recent videos, noting that it exposes the 1.4260 region.
While it’s been slower to develop than I initially expected, USDCAD remains constructive while above 1.3870 on the weekly chart.
The pair is also holding above a key support level at 1.3940.
As long as this general area holds as support on the higher time frames, I like USDCAD higher toward 1.4260.
