Weekly Forex Forecast (February 13-17, 2023)

·    February 11, 2023

·      February 11, 2023

·    February 11, 2023


Today’s weekly Forex forecast covers the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and AUDNZD.

The US dollar held above key support last week, and the euro broke a critical area on Friday.

Plus, an unsuspecting pair like AUDNZD has some of the best technicals in forex right now.

Watch the video and scroll down to view the charts to prepare for next week.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY spent most of last week between 103.00 support and 103.50 resistance.

Although we saw several daily closes below 103.50, we never saw the USD index close a day below resistance turned support from November.

As long as DXY is above that 103.00 region and especially 103.50 following Friday’s close, I have to respect the bullish breakout.

A push higher this week would likely find resistance around the 104.40 congestion area.

However, the next key resistance level for the DXY is 105.60.

DXY support and resistance
DXY daily time frame

EURUSD Forecast

With the US dollar sideways last week, it meant pairs like EURUSD were also uneventful.

We saw the euro hold above the 1.0700 confluence of support for several days last week. However, Friday’s close looks relatively bearish.

The EURUSD closed the week below that 1.0700 support area, which flips it to resistance.

But I’m always skeptical of Friday breaks, given the lack of volume ahead of the weekend.

So the first 24 hours of next week will offer some clues.

A Monday close below 1.0700 will confirm Friday’s breakdown. Alternatively, a daily close back above 1.0700 would suggest that Friday’s move was a bullish fakeout.

The next support for EURUSD is the congestion area around 1.0620, with a key support level below that at 1.0480.

EURUSD breakdown
EURUSD daily time frame

GBPUSD Forecast

Last weekend, I discussed how GBPUSD had broken its September trend line. I even wrote about that breakdown on February 2nd.

We saw the pound sell-off initially following that break, but GBPUSD was mostly sideways last week.

That’s no surprise, given the lack of movement from the DXY.

However, we did see GBPUSD retest the 1.2120 key level on Thursday and rotate lower from that area on Friday.

So, for now, 1.2120 is holding as key resistance.

But the bigger test for GBPUSD bulls stands at the 1.1900 range lows.

Considering how significant it has been since November, I would be surprised to see the pound break that area without a bounce.

As mentioned last week, as long as GBPUSD is above 1.1900, the last few months are nothing more than a 550 pip range between 1.1900 and 1.2450.

GBPUSD range
GBPUSD daily time frame

USDJPY Forecast

USDJPY gave us a clean breakout above 130.60 on February 3rd.

That was the highlight of last week’s forecast. And, so far, USDJPY bulls are doing their best to hold the pair above that mark.

However, last Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle slowed the pair’s advance, and even the price action on Thursday and Friday isn’t entirely convincing.

So while USDJPY is holding 130.60, the pair has yet to make any meaningful headway following the breakout earlier this month.

For now, though, USDJPY is range bound between 130.60 support and 134.50 resistance.

USDJPY support and resistance levels
USDJPY daily time frame

AUDNZD Forecast

I wrote about AUDNZD on Friday but felt it was worth another mention.

Although not a popular currency pair, the recent price action is impossible to ignore if you’re a technical trader.

We saw AUDNZD break out from a descending channel in December, a move I mentioned at the time in the member’s Discord group.

However, the currency cross has formed a potential rising wedge pattern since then.

A pattern like the one below often signals exhaustion during uptrends, but a close below trend line support near 1.0950 to confirm the break.

Until then, I have to respect the uptrend since December.

A confirmed breakdown would target the 50% retracement at 1.0750, which has also been a key pivot for AUDNZD since late November.

AUDNZD rising wedge on the daily chart
AUDNZD daily time frame

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