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USDJPY: Waiting for a Daily Close Below 105.50

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I discussed the USDJPY a couple of times back in mid-February. Following the close below the September 2012 trend line on February 13, we began looking for short entries for a move to key support at 105.50.

That level was reached just three trading days later on February 16. But even the bounce from 105.50 had us watching for short entries again between 107.70 and 108.00 per my February 20 commentary. Although a bit choppier on the way down, that too was a profitable trade.

However, since that time the price action on the USDJPY has been incredibly choppy. As such, I’ve remained on the sideline for about a month now.

Despite the last four weeks of consolidation, one thing we can discern is that 105.50 is still a significant support area. Sellers have tried to break 105.50 during six separate trading sessions including today’s retest.

As you can see from the chart below, they’ve been unsuccessful each time.

That said, with the pair struggling to move higher in recent weeks and carving lower highs, it seems a breakdown is only a matter of time. This is especially true considering the close below the 2012 trend line last month, which was a significant development.

From here things are pretty straightforward. A daily close (using a New York close chart) below 105.50 would expose the next key support at 103.70.

Ideally, I’d like to see a daily close well below 105.50 to clear the recent lows near 105.25. Either way, I’ll need to see how sellers respond to the 105.50 region following a daily closing below it.

I’m also keeping an eye on the mean as represented by the 10 and 20 EMAs. Note how the USDJPY has responded to this area since late January. Of course, there’s also a possibility that we see a sudden selloff like that of the 13th to the 16th of February.

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USDJPY daily time frame

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21 comments
Johan van Panhuis says

Just a question. Is your WhatsApp channel down? I don’t get the updates on WhatsApp anymore.

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    Justin Bennett says

    Is it down? I don’t think so.

    Reply
      Usman says

      Dear bro Justin, plz add my number on your whatsapp please,+923060106101, i am unable to add you, i am following your lessons which are very useful for me, but i caught on Gbp/ jpy, i sell from 147.85,0.50 lots,tell me i exit or not from this price 149.50

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        Please follow the instructions in the post.

        Reply
        Pierre Mifsud says

        If I were you I would keep my position as the JPY is strong and the GBP is getting weaker.

        Reply
Sam says

Thank you Mr Spot On;

I’m also keeping an eye on GBPJPY

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Sumantra Kumar halder says

Thank you very much

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RaviKiran says

XCLENT Trading Tips

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Joseph says

Thanks! Will keep an eye on it

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Bogatsu says

Thanks Justin. We’re all watching.

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John says

Love you bro

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Babatunde Adewale says

Before I sign up I received message that I will get 500$ on my account as bonus,after I sign up finished I didn’t see anything as a bonus

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roger says

Its not okey that you trigger peoples head by your thinking, let everyone make choice to buy or sell when they feel right time to do.
You just a twist minds for your best winning

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I urge everyone to make their own decisions, Roger. That’s precisely why I don’t provide signals – because I want folks to learn how to trade, not follow someone else blindly.

    Everything on this website is just my opinion. What you do with the content is entirely up to you.

    Reply
Harry says

I saw it coming thinking of taking profit at 104

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OLIVER YAKUBU says

Hello Justin, nice work, keep it up. I tried adding you to my whatsapp but not working out. Kindly include me on your list if it’s OK by you. My phone number is: +2348171228746.
Many thanks brother.

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Lazlo says

Hi Justin, did you notice the channel that it is currently in? I will wait for a retrace to 105.523 then take it to 103.7. Thanks, I missed that support and resistance analysis

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mone magnet says

do you have a telegram channel

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