The last time I wrote about USDJPY on May 25th, I was expecting a pullback from the 140.00 resistance area.
That area held, and USDJPY is still pulling back from recent highs.
You can see from the daily time frame below how well this ascending channel has contained the pair all year.
Given where USDJPY is trading, a further pullback to 136.00-138.00 makes sense.
You can see how significant this area is on the weekly chart below.
However, the 4-hour time frame shows a symmetrical triangle that has yet to break.
For this reason alone, I’m hesitant to call USDPY one way or the other.
That’s especially true when we consider that bulls haven’t tested the 142.25 key area.
Given its significance in September and November last year, a retest here seems likely.
We just don’t know if we’ll get the move to 142.25 now or after a pullback to 136.00-138.00.
Of course, there’s the chance we don’t see 142.25 at all.
But I remain bullish on the USD while the US Dollar Index (DXY) is above the 103.50 yearly open on a daily closing basis.
That said, dollar bulls have yet to break the 104.20/30 resistance area, a requirement to open up 105.00 and 105.60.
As for USDJPY, I’ll monitor this symmetrical triangle for a breakout in the coming days.
A sustained break above triangle resistance will expose the 141.50 channel resistance and potentially 142.25, while a break below support will expose 136.00-138.00.
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