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USDJPY Shorts Favored Below 108.40

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On December 30th, I wrote that the future direction for USDJPY hinges on 108.40.

Notice how the pair has caught a bid here since mid-November.

I also pointed out the price structure of the pair in the December 30th members-only video, namely the recent swing highs and lows.

The way the USDJPY was struggling to carve higher highs hinted at a possible pullback.

Furthermore, the pair had recently tested the trend line that extends from the November 2018 high.

I discussed this trend line in the December 21st forecast video.

All of this pointed to the potential for a pullback.

But the 108.40 support level stood in the way of a deeper correction.

While we still need a daily close below 108.40 to confirm the breakdown, the USDJPY looks ready to retest 106.80 in the coming days.

Remember that the “daily close” for me refers to 5 pm EST.

Go here to get access to the same New York close charts I use. These charts will give you five 24-hour sessions each week.

Notice too how the pair bounced from this 108.40 area on Thursday.

That’s a clear sign that the market is paying attention to this level, and that a daily close below it would be significant.

Just remember that there are no guarantees.

Although a daily close below 108.40 would signal weakness and also expose 106.80, it doesn’t mean it will happen.

There’s always a chance it could be a false break.

But for now, I’ll treat this first lower low since August 2019 and pending close below 108.40 as signs of a bearish reversal.

Key support levels on the way down include 106.80 followed by 105.00.

Alternatively, a daily close back above 108.40 would negate the bearish outlook and re-expose the November 2018 trend line near 109.50.

Want to watch the USDJPY video I just released in the member’s area?

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USDJPY trend line resistance and horizontal support

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7 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Isiyaku Ibrahim says

Thanks Justin

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Henryk says

Super Justin ok.

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Daniel Sumomba says

It is very good analysis,
How about USDCAD could you give comment on price action right now

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Henry.o says

Based on USDJPY in a HI chart,there is no much force pushing the trend up,the bull and the bear are fighting. The down trend will still take over but don’t know the extent.

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Matthew says

It’s now 5 January and it looks like the Daily has closed below 108.40!
I am only now reading this, but so glad I am on the right side of the market!
This just confirms it.
Thanks Justin for your analysis!

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gyoseongkim says

What do shorts mean?

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