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USDJPY: Sellers Need to Hold 113.00

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USDJPY has broken below trend line support that extends from the year-to-date low.

But this isn’t the first time.

You may recall the October 26th breakdown. We had waited several weeks for that close. Unfortunately, it turned out to be a false break.

Will this time be different or more of the same?

That’s the question that needs answering.

If this trend line is still significant, we should see USDJPY encounter selling pressure below 113.00.

I’m not concerned about intraday moves, but the daily time frame needs to hold below that 113.00 area.

Remember, I use New York close charts so that each session closes at 5 pm EST. Get instant access to the same charting platform I use.

The recent price action does appear to hint at weakness. I mentioned the way buyers were struggling to extend rallies in October.

That alone suggested USDJPY bulls were tiring.

Now we have what appears to be a lower high. The early October rally managed a 114.50 print, but this latest push higher topped out at 114.20.

The fact that buyers were unable to retest the year-to-date high could be significant.

As I discussed above though, the real test will take place at 113.00. That’s the area sellers need to hold in order to extend last week’s selloff.

Speaking of last week’s selloff…

While it didn’t occur at a major swing high, last week’s candle was a bearish engulfing one.

Combine that with the lower high, and things start to look rather bleak for buyers.

I wouldn’t call this a quality selling opportunity though. At least not yet.

The price action since mid-October is too messy for my liking, particularly the false break on the 26th.

Not to mention the fact that the market is still trending higher, so any shorts up here are counter-trend.

That said, things are starting to look more bearish than bullish. And a bearish pin bar today would only add conviction to that statement.

That’s especially true when you factor in the recent lower high which also carved a weekly bearish engulfing pattern.

Resistance is 113.00 at the time of this writing. Sellers need to hold that area on a daily closing basis if they intend to follow through on the recent weakness.

If they can’t and USDJPY closes back above this trend line, I will most likely remove the level from my chart.

Targets for a move lower include 111.70 followed by 110.80.

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USDJPY daily chart trend line

Leave a Comment:

35 comments
Domitilla says

Hi, you are right in all.

Reply
Paul says

Hi Justin, just my humble opinion, and please correct me if I am wrong…but wouldn’t it make sense to draw the trendline over the low of May 29th as well which makes the line less steep? Thanks for your feedback as usual.

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    Fabian says

    Nice one Paul!

    Reply
    Danie says

    I saw that too, in fact, that’s how I drew it before I even encounter this post! I think it fits better that way. Could this be why the false break of 26th? I mean maybe it was not even a break if we follow this way of drawing the support line…Please Justin comment with your experienced view, nothing beats experience! Thanks.

    Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I’m not sure what you mean, but if it makes sense to you, go for it. 🙂

    Reply
Isiyaku Ibrahim says

Thanks sir,I follow your signals

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Sumantra kumar halder says

Thank you very much

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    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Sumantra.

    Reply
Oluchukwu says

Thank you Thank you Thank you

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re very welcome.

    Reply
Adeolu Adewole says

Hello Justin. I just want to ask a question. Why is your trendline not touching the low formed on the 2nd of November? I’d be delighted if you could explain this to me briefly. Thanks

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fawaz bamakrait says

good morning justin,yes i agree with you,if it closes below 113.00,it will go down to 111.77

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forexeztrader says

these days i am with nzd/jpy

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derrick says

thank you very much sir

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Derrick.

    Reply
msar says

Hi Justin. I used to draw my trending and support/resistance lines using Line Chart instead Candle chart to maintain the consistencies…what say you?

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    Justin Bennett says

    Whatever works for you. It isn’t something I would do.

    Reply
Rui Rodolfo says

Sell on 113.118, Tp 112.640 SL 113.294

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    Joe Matkin says

    No that’s a terrible idea ?! Don’t give people information that will loose them money!

    Reply
Valkan says

Sellers couldn’t hold the level… Do you still have it in your chart?

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    Joe Matkin says

    As of now 113.00 has not been broken?

    Reply
Siyabonga Sukude says

thank you

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Nguyen van dung says

thank you very much

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Nguyen.

    Reply
Kieu son says

Thank you!

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riyad says

hi ! justin sir , why you don’t use ichimoku indicator?

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    Justin Bennett says

    Because I don’t need it. It would only clutter my charts.

    Reply
OGBORO preciouslife says

Nice one

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Joe Matkin says

Hey Justin, I love your analysis although you have not marked out key resistance at 114 and i would still be very bearish even if price action surpasses 113. What do you think?

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Hennie says

JPY could not break the 114 line form March 2017, it has come to a big res, already we have a pin bar and engulfing at the tops. Just my 2c

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Fan says

Thanks Justin, three lower highs since Oct 3rd; multipile testing on up trend line since Oct 3rd comparing to days before on the up trend line, therefore I feel we are very close to a downward movement. If indeed it go down, how low would you see? Thanks again.

Reply
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