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USDJPY Closes in on Must-Hold Area

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

The USDJPY has been drifting higher since the March low at 104.60. In that time, the risk-sensitive pair has managed to gain more than 600 pips.

A couple weekends ago I pointed out a descending channel that extends from the May 21st high. The pair had just come off channel resistance and was struggling to rally above the 110.70 region.

However, buyers eventually managed to break resistance on the 29th of June, which was also the last trading day of the month.

We can even see how this old resistance level has served as new support this past week. The USDJPY caught a bid here on both Wednesday and Thursday.

So far today, though, the buying has subsided once more, and the market is struggling to hold its head above 110.50.

The more significant area, though, may lie just below 110.50 at 110.30. If we draw a trend line from the March low and connect it with the May 29 low, it creates a confluence of support in the 110.30 region.

In fact, that trend line may be an ascending channel. The pattern connects with highs from March 13, May 2, and the May 21 daily close.

That’s going to be a key area for buyers next week. A failure to stay above it on a daily closing basis (New York 5 pm EST) would open the door to the late June lows at 109.40.

On the flip side, bullish price action from the 110.30 area next week could expose higher prices including the May high at 111.40.

I’m neutral here at the moment, but based on this past week’s price action, I’m not overly confident that buyers can pull it off. As always, time will tell.

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USDJPY daily channels

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10 comments
Brian.tfx says

Thanks Justin. Great analysis

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. Glad you found it helpful.

    Reply
Daemon Blackfyre says

Thanks mate! I’m watching this pair as well and my view is almost same as yours. I would like to ask, what is with your members’ area that is not here? Perhaps I could join but I want to know the features your share there that you arent sharing here.

Reply
lakes says

Nice but it’s a sell….Watch from weekly

Reply
Wabsy says

Good one my mentor, I have been following u for a very long time, & I have never doubt ur analysis,God bless u,sir dont u think usdjpy will sell very well next week?

Reply
Howard says

111 to 111.40 has been resistance zone over last 2 months

Reply
Leon Audh says

Thanks Justin. Great analysis. It really helps me with my trading.

Reply
Valkan says

Hello Justin, hope you are still keeping an eye on the USDJPY. Buyers are about to pull a golden tux on this pair. Your analysis will be greatly appreciated

Reply
Njengakelvin says

What are the upside price S&R levels of USDJPY after 111.30/40?

Reply
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