USDJPY Bearish Signal Established Below 105.50

by Justin Bennett  · 

March 27, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

March 27, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

March 27, 2018

Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

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The USDJPY has just completed a textbook retest of a new resistance level. We looked at the 105.50 handle on Thursday of last week. At the time, it was still serving as support.

However, by Thursday’s close at 5 pm EST, the pair had fallen below 105.50. Friday’s session took the USDJPY even lower which left us watching for a retest of the area as new resistance per Sunday’s weekly forecast.

The pair reached a high of 105.47 on Monday, but the lack of bearish price action left me on the sideline.

Fast forward to today and we can see that, after forcing an intraday high of 105.90 during yesterday’s session, buyers failed to close the day above 105.50.

The selling pressure between 105.50 and 105.90 has left us with a bearish pin bar. Although the range of Tuesday’s move isn’t quite as extensive as I’d like, the pin bar shape, bearish momentum, and key level are all there.

Furthermore, the recent intraday spike above 105.50 has helped reset things. Last week I mentioned how well the pair has responded to the 10 and 20 daily EMAs since late January. Yesterday’s rejection appears to be a continuation of that pattern.

As long as the USDJPY trades below 105.50 on a daily closing basis (New York close chart), I will stay bearish. Key support comes in at 103.70.

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USDJPY bearish pin bar on daily chart

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  1. Hi Justin from Fabrizio. I’d like to know your opinion and advice about Autochartist. Thank you and a lot of greetings

  2. Hi Justin you are doing a great job here what is your view as at today on USDJPY cos it seems price is ignoring yesterday pin bar on the daily and heading for 106.101 on the daily.

    1. Right, not all signals work out. That said, I was concerned about how quickly the pair retested 105.50 as new resistance, which I also mentioned to members. Turns out it was a valid concern.

      1. Thanks for your comment actually usdjpy is a funny one i guess its still going down cos its in the sell zone on monthly chart with a target of 102. 016 in the support area or if not if the monthly candle closes as a pin bar which its forming now causing the pair to move bullishly on daily weekly it may be a bullish scenario come APRIL

  3. This made me laugh after work when I checked my metatrader 😀 just opoened additional USDJPY position even before read this forecast fore the same reasons as confirmation pinbar, and now I see complete difference 😀 I actually would like to get statistics of how often those work. Now probably everyone who trade by daily chart got stopped out 🙂

    1. Can it be that since all traders see this perfect formation and have short positions, then big companies just buy a ton and raise price and all get stopped out ? In the morning I felt that this setup is too obviouss and if everyone do same, then this is not good, where is the profit comming from?

  4. so last night, the 27th, into today we have a 155 pip spike up. What do you think caused that and are you still bearish?

  5. Hi J,
    Interesting comment about the pin but you say it’s not a large enough range for you to enter a trade.
    Your experience kept you out of a losing trade as we see the very next day the range was more than 3 times that pin.
    Thanks for your blogging

    1. Hi Justin,
      I went back in time to your USD/JPY reports for Jan 9 / 10 2018. Seems you were onto some thing big then, very few recognized the opportunity. (triangle consolidation on a major time frame)
      Since then the Yen has moved down over 7600 pips. It must be that only a select few with major experience view price action in the proper way. What I mean is trend traders / followers would have held this short trade from the 112.50 area. Of course I have hindsight in my favour but try to understand my thinking. “What if” someone was a true and hardcore unwaivering trend trader they would have many B/E stop outs, very dissapointing but in cases like this they would be onto a huge potential return. They don’t view trading as a financial return but more as a strict following of process. Hence not focusing on the money.
      Do you know anyone similar to you in this respect.

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