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USDCHF: Timing Is Everything

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The USDCHF can either be the easiest pair to trade, or the most difficult.

It all depends on your timing.

For instance, the selloff between early May and late June was relatively orderly, and as such, formed a nice stair-step decline.

However, the rallies that followed in late June and again in August were far from ideal in terms of favorable price action.

You can see just how choppy USDCHF was between mid-August and October.

So has the pair transitioned back to favorable price action?

It’s too soon to tell, but as choppy as the price action has been since August, the ascending channel that developed is somewhat appealing.

We shouldn’t be surprised by this channel and recent breakdown, though.

The USDCHF tends to do the opposite of the EURUSD, and we know all about the euro’s recent bull move.

It’s no surprise then to see that USDCHF recently broke below channel support.

Whether or not it’s significant is yet to be seen, however.

But I am keeping a close eye on two key resistance areas as we move into next week.

The first is the 0.9930 resistance level.

To see why 0.9930 is such a significant area for the USDCHF, we need to use the weekly time frame.

USDCHF 0.9930 on the weekly time frame

Notice how USDCHF has used 0.9930 as a pivot in the past, especially the price action between January and late July.

It isn’t perfect, but it is a key area, in my opinion.

Any bearish price action from the 0.9930 region could signal a move lower next week and perhaps a retest of 0.9840 support.

Keep in mind too that 0.9930 could extend as high as 0.9950.

The second resistance area I’m keeping an eye on is former ascending channel support, which should now act as resistance.

Depending on what happens at 0.9930, the USDCHF may not test that former support level until parity (1.0000).

Or, the pair may not retest it at all.

Again, it’s going to come down to what happens around 0.9930 today and early next week.

If we do see sellers defend either 0.9930 or parity next week and trigger a rotation lower, I’ll be looking for an initial move to 0.9840.

A daily close below 0.9840 would open the door to 0.9760 with a break there exposing the inception point of this channel around 0.9690.

I also just shared an intraday pattern in today’s members-only video that could help us time the next move from USDCHF.

Regardless of what happens, though, patience is key.

I don’t want to short USDCHF while this correction higher is intact, especially if the pair closes above 0.9930 today.

Want to watch the USDCHF video I just released in the member’s area?

Get a Lifetime Membership Today and receive exclusive member-only content including one to two new videos every day. Save 40% in October!

USDCHF key levels

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20 comments
Justin Bennett says

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justin says

What are the correlations between the majors? USDCAD seems to always do its own thing or maybe im selectively remembering this

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    Justin Bennett says

    Correlations aren’t static and can vary by time frame, so it’s best to use a table like the one found here:

    https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/correlation

    That said, most retail traders spend too much time worrying about correlations, in my opinion. I would rather spend that time analyzing a market on its own merits than going down the “if this, then that” rabbit hole of variables if you catch my meaning.

    Reply
Derick says

Hi Justin Bennett,

Great Work.
The spread with my borker for the USDCHF pair is -13.78 when going short.
Does a negative swap rate factor in to your daily trade analysis?
Do you like the carry trade?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks, Derick. That isn’t a great rate from your broker, in my opinion. I don’t pay much attention to rates since it costs me next to nothing to hold overnight when the swap is negative.

    Reply
Jane says

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!!. You make trading enjoyable and easy. No more struggling with key levels and technical analysis..

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re very welcome, Jane. Pleased to hear that!

    Reply
Azhar S M says

Is it necessary to open account in Blue berry Markets? As I already have account with different broker.

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    Justin Bennett says

    No, you can use whichever broker you prefer. However, New York close charts are ideal so that each 24-hour candle (daily time frame) opens and closes at 5 pm EST.

    Reply
Mohsin says

ohhh greate Justin, after a long long time you talked about USD/CHF
any ways i think parity is the good price for short side

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Emmanuel says

Thanks once more Mr Justin for your well understood analysis

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
ali says

I appreciate your setup sir justin , can you please mention what do you think about gold.

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muhammad ashraf says

thanks my master your work is very nice GOD bless you, my mind next week maybe selling bigning and create new weekly M patterns

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Diederik says

Hi Justin,

I will be joining your group soon. However, I have a question about your general trading style. It seems to me you usually have at least 8 pairs on your watchlist for any given week. How do you keep up to date with the setups? Do you set alarms? Or do you simply check once a day around the daily closing candle what opportunities are in line with your trading plan?

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    Justin Bennett says

    I use the Trade Tracker platform that I built. Members get access to it for free when they join.

    Reply
Thabiso says

I just closed my buy, waiting for a sell setup

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Irfan butt says

Thanks justin
I used to follow the signals service since last 3 years and blown 3 accounts already. Now i am following your blog and your trading style and the results are amazing. I am feeling more confident day by day. Thanks alot fpr such a great material on your website

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. That’s great to hear!

    Reply
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