USDCHF tested two critical resistance areas during Thursday’s dollar relief rally.
Watch today’s video for the details, including key levels to watch, where the pair might go from here, and an update on my trade. Plus, get an update on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
On Tuesday, I entered a short USDCHF position at 0.7973, which I shared in real-time with VIP members in Discord. The basis for the trade was a sustained break below the support level of July’s ascending channel, combined with a longer-term downtrend.
The DXY also broke below 97.70 on Tuesday, with price action favoring sellers.
Tuesday’s drop from USDCHF left two buy-side imbalances, also called single prints in TPO terms—one at 0.7950 and another at 0.7958.
Single prints are thinly traded areas on a chart. They often serve as magnets, so to speak, for market makers, given the lack of a settlement that occurred in the region.
However, single prints can also serve as support or resistance.
I shared these areas with members in Tuesday’s VIP-only video. The key takeaway from that video was that USDCHF may retest 0.7950 and 0.7958 to “clean up” those imbalances.
Fast forward to Thursday’s session, and the US dollar caught a slight bid heading into today’s ECB rate decision and press conference. The brief dollar rally triggered a retest of both 0.7950 and 0.7958 for USDCHF.
Thursday’s high so far is 0.7959, just one pip above the second single print I shared with Discord members on Tuesday.
As for where USDCHF goes from here, the chart continues to point toward the July low at 0.7872. Below that is the bottom of the descending channel from May, along with the 0.7720 weekly support I shared in Tuesday’s video.
My invalidation for the bearish scenario is 0.7970 on USDCHF and 97.70 for the DXY. As long as markets remain below these areas, I will maintain my bearish stance.
I remain short USDCHF, and I’ll update VIP members on this trade and any new setups in real time.
