The USDCAD is going through some much-needed consolidation.
Following a 1,150 pip rally that started with the March 9th gap up, the USDCAD has given back 750 pips.
At least that was the situation as of Friday’s low.
Today’s session has the USDCAD higher by 140 pips after a gap up to start the week.
Buyers are also testing that 1.4150 key level.
Notice how 1.4150 is the March 20th low and very close to Friday’s high of 1.4153.
So far, the USDCAD has secured a 4-hour close above that level.
But the real test for bulls will be today’s close at 5 pm EST.
If you’ve followed me for a while now, you know I use the New York close at 5 pm EST to confirm breaks.
If we see the USDCAD close today above 1.4150, that area will flip to support.
Key resistance above that comes in at 1.4300, which intersects with the top of a short-term descending channel.
Given the parabolic move earlier this month, this channel appears to be a bull flag pattern.
That said, buyers need to secure a close above channel resistance to confirm the pattern.
Until that happens, the USDCAD consolidation will continue.
A close above channel resistance between 1.4300 and 1.4350 would not only confirm the breakout, but it would also expose the measured objective.
Now, there are a couple of ways to measure an objective here.
The first would be to use the low of the March 9th breakout candle.
That would give us a 1,150 pip objective. And if we assume Friday’s low holds, that puts the target just above the 1.5000 handle.
Another option is to use the February 21st low or even the current 2020 low as the start of the flag pole.
Those two lows would give us objectives of 1,450 pips and 1,720 pips, respectively.
For now, though, it all comes down to whether or not buyers can close the pair above 1.4150, and eventually take out that 1.4300 resistance area.
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thank you very much
You’re welcome.
Hello Justin, Good set up and potentially highly rewarding. My only question is around your earlier set up of USD/JPY where USD is going down which contradicts with this setup where USD is going up. Unless its going up solely due to CAD weakness. What are your thoughts on that?
USDJPY shares no correlation with USDCAD on the daily time frame.
Hey justin, great work ! Whatvare your thoughts on the entry right now ? Did the daily bar close above the line you mentioned ? I cant find a feed with ny 5 pm closing bars lol
Hi Steve, I only share my entries with DPA members. You can join here if you’d like: https://www.blueberrymarkets.com/lp/dailypriceaction/
Here’s a link to the New York close charts I use: https://www.blueberrymarkets.com/lp/dailypriceaction/
Hi, boss, i always admire the way you analyse the markets. I watch your weekly videos on the Tube but i am just wondering that with all that is happening in the world today and on the markets, do you think that technical analysis as against fundamental is still the way?
If you’re asking if technical analysis still works, my answer is yes, without a doubt. Price action has been around for hundreds of years.
Tks so much bro!
Thank you Justin
Thanks for the update sir justin.
Hello sir , it was good setup for me. I made good profit from this setup. I want to become good trader. I will join you soon….
Thank you